President Donald Trump has assembled, in his own words, “the largest military force ever seen in the history of South America” to block Venezuela’s oil exports. The initial pretext for moving a powerful naval fleet, 15,000 soldiers and combat aircraft was the fight against drug trafficking, one of the leaders of which would be President Nicolás Maduro, whom Trump intends to remove from power. Trump is not ruling out war against the Venezuelan regime, but it is too risky a step for a president who has always criticized the US military presence in other conflict countries, such as Afghanistan. Both the seizure of oil tankers, as happened earlier this month, and the stated goal of removing Maduro from power are clearly illegal under international law. Trump is making a brutal show of force, after his security strategy brought Latin America back into the “backyard” of the United States.
Trump is now using military pressure as a way to encourage internal rebellion, particularly from the military, in the wake of Maduro, who rigged the 2024 elections, which the opposition won. It is possible that he will fail like the first time, when he recognized Juan Guaidó, president of the National Assembly, as the legitimate president and ordered severe sanctions against the country’s oil trade.
As in dictatorships, the army is bribed, but also strictly monitored under the Chavista regime. A series of businesses were entrusted to them by the state, such as the management of PDVSA, the state oil company, responsible for 90% of hard currency entering the country, the importation and sale of subsidized food products, a mining company, a bank, among others. In this condition, they are partners of the regime and have an interest in its survival.
But there have been purges, because in a closed regime, which has annihilated the possibility of transmission of power through democratic channels and eliminated the opposition’s freedom of expression, a coup d’état is one of the few ways to remove a president who wants to be president for life. Maduro’s bodyguards and part of the state secret service are Cuban. With so many allies among the military and security services of recognized effectiveness, it is difficult, but not impossible, for the military to overthrow Maduro. This appears to be Trump’s main hope, but there is good reason to believe he will be disappointed.
Maduro does not enjoy sufficient popular support and the end of his regime would not fail. Chavismo, and Maduro in particular, will be remembered for events such as the largest exodus from a country not at war – around 7 million Venezuelans left the country – and the largest economic debacle in peacetime, with a 60% drop in GDP between 2013 and 2023. The decade is marked by hyperinflation, which reached a record in February 2019, when it reached 345,000%, according to Trading Economics. The flight for survival has led more than 3 million Venezuelans to migrate to Colombia and more than 700,000 to Brazil (from 2015 to 2022).
The blockade imposed by Trump has worsened Venezuela’s already poor economic situation. There is a shortage of dollars again, the bolivar is rapidly devaluing, and 12-month inflation in November was 556%. Maduro enjoys political support from Cuba, which has no military significance, as well as China and Russia, which would likely not intervene on his behalf in the event of an armed conflict with the United States.
Given the disproportion of power, it remains unclear what Trump intends to achieve and how far he wants to go, which is not easy to discern. He promised an unusual $50 million reward to anyone who captured Maduro, seen by the United States as the leader of a drug trafficking gang. In his last interviews, another reason appeared: an alleged theft committed by Hugo Chávez, during the nationalization of oil, from 2007. The objective would then be the return of American oil companies to the country, with the end of Maduro.
Trump has already bombed 28 ships, killed 100 people, allegedly drug traffickers, and wants to close Venezuelan airspace. Recently, it concluded a military agreement with Paraguay which allows the use of the presence of American troops in the neighboring country, a member of Mercosur, in the event of a “humanitarian tragedy” in other countries (O Globo, 18-12). In the national security strategy, Trump has already expressed his intention to support political movements that defend American interests, such as that of Javier Milei in Argentina and Honduras, where he gave strength in the elections to a right-wing leader, Nasry Asfura.
Trump’s interventionism poses thorny problems for the Brazilian government. President Lula has rightly opposed the use of force and is trying to mediate the conflict, talking with Maduro and Trump. His support for Chavismo, interrupted only after Maduro rigged the election, may not qualify him for that against Trump. But dialogue, not force, is the only way to prevent both the current conflict from spiraling out of control and the illegal and arbitrary actions of the U.S. government from flourishing.
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