Donald Trump broke with an eight-decade tradition in the National Security Strategy document, in which he listed priorities in the United States’ relations with the world. Trump’s vision is presented as a new doctrine. Implicitly or explicitly, this is an unprecedented turnaround in American foreign policy.
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Free trade is replaced by protectionism. The promotion of democracy and human rights is losing ground, even if a distorted idea of freedom of expression serves as a pretext for actions in defense of major digital platforms. Policies to combat climate change are giving way to encouraging fossil fuels. From a former historical partner, the European Union is now considered a civilizational risk, a rival or a threat, where far-right nativist parties represent the only bastion of resistance. The multilateral system of global institutions becomes a succession of bilateral confrontations in which the powerful rule – and the rest obey.
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Latin America appears first in the section detailing regional policies. The text acknowledges years of U.S. neglect of the neighborhood and promises to “comply with the Monroe Doctrine,” a policy adopted beginning in 1823 that paved the way for imperialism beyond the southern border and whose consequences among Caribbean and Latin Americans persist today in the form of atavistic anti-Americanism. Now repackaged as the “Trump Corollary”, its objective is to “restore American pre-eminence” against the Chinese presence. “We will deny non-hemispheric competitors the opportunity to deploy forces or other threatening capabilities, or to possess or control strategically vital assets,” the document states.
The declarations flout the notion of national self-determination and revive fears of armed intervention. Today, there is a concentration of ships, fighter jets and troops in the Caribbean to pressure Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro to leave power. Who knows what the next target will be? The promise to “reward and encourage governments, political parties and movements in the region that are broadly aligned with our principles and strategy” is a harbinger of new threats. Nothing good can come from the spirit of confrontation in which the law of the strongest prevails.
The fight against immigration is the first priority of the new American strategy. On this subject, Brazil is of secondary importance. In the exploration of mineral resources, it is different. Brazil has some of the world’s largest reserves of rare earths, and one of the stated goals of the Trump Doctrine is to invest in these lands as well as other critical minerals, such as lithium, nickel or graphite. With skill, it is possible for Brazilians and Americans to reach an agreement that benefits both. It will be more complicated to give up Chinese investments.
However, nothing compares to the geopolitical earthquake that could be represented by the withdrawal of Europe, the abandonment of Ukraine for the benefit of Russia or the disengagement from regions where the American presence is essential to guarantee security, such as the Middle East or the South China Sea (read Taiwan). The current crisis in Venezuela may only be a harbinger of things to come. Navigating a world dominated by the Trump Doctrine will be the most difficult task. Prudence, patience and, above all, defense of the national interest are expected of the Brazilian government.
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