UCA measured the administration’s “achievements and failures” as: good inflation and fiscal balance, lower consumption and less job creation.

he Argentine Social Debt Observatory Subordinate Argentine Catholic University He conducted a study entitled “The New Political and Economic Scenario: Stress and Well-Being in an Argentina in Transition,” Coordinated as usual in its measurements by Augustin SalviaWhere it is analyzed “Achievements and failures” From management Javier Miley Since assuming the presidency at the end of 2023.

The report begins by explaining that the fatigue caused by the post-transformation political and economic system has allowed the emergence of a new liberal political and economic scenario, the goals of which are private investment, trade openness, fiscal balance and exports, highlighting that “The old is declining, but the new has not yet been able to strengthen itself economically, institutionally, or socially.“.

According to the report, This new model implemented a series of measures (Fiscal adjustment, deregulation, market liberalization, subsidy reduction, and external openness). It had a direct impact on all labor and production sectors that depend on the internal market, This translated into a decrease in consumption And tensions in the industrial field where they emphasize the main problem Its limited ability to create “low- and medium-skilled employment opportunities.”

40% of industries have had to reduce their production according to a UIA survey

At this point, the report acknowledges, “the new libertarian regime is showing good results Relevant macroeconomic achievements Which regulates the financial and monetary front: (1) Significant reduction in monthly inflationAfter the initial correction of the relative price shock; (2) Initial financial balance For the first time in more than a decade; (3) Rebuilding reservesReducing exchange rate uncertainty and increasing macroeconomic predictability; (4) Improving international listingWith positive signs in the energy, mining and agribusiness chains; (5) Re-opening investment opportunitiesEspecially in export-oriented tradable sectors.

but, The report highlights that these developments, in and of themselves, are not the solution to social deteriorationAlthough it represents a stable base that can be the asset for a new growth cycle, if translated into formal employment opportunities, investments and income improvements.

Negative saving situation: 91% of households are in debt

According to the report, Retirees receiving the minimum reached their highest level in 2012-2013But since then they have gradually lost their purchasing power. The bonus granted by the government tried to compensate for this problem, but it did not achieve its goals, and the sector now finds itself, At a level similar to what it was in 2005. According to the report, “In 2024-25, the minimum pension is slowly deteriorating due to the bonus freeze, while the top pensions stagnate “With low values ​​after a strong initial recovery.”

With regard to society in general The report indicates that there are three different Argentine regions, separated by social, economic, cultural, and employment levels. Thirty years ago, there was a matrix that dominated 50% of the middle class and 20% of the poor sectors; Currently, there are 40% of the middle class and more than 30% of the poor sectors. In our country there is currently a social pyramid that is divided as follows according to income: 3% are rich, 7% are high, 20% are integrated, 20% are ambitious, 20% are low and weak, 20% are low and not destitute, and 10% are extremely poor.

The report then highlights that “the Argentine economy, which experienced short cycles of growth and recession, failed to grow even as per capita GDP declined from 2011 to 2024. This implied a chronic stagnation in the wealth generated by the country’s productive capacities, which had to be distributed among a larger population.” After the peak of contraction in the 2023-2024 cycle, the beginning of a new cycle of economic recovery has begun“.

Then the report mentions that The previous model led to increased public spending“consolidated at levels close to 40% of GDP” to finance consumption, which affected the fiscal deficit, and recognizes that The surplus achieved by the current government is due to “the significant reduction in spending.”

Regarding annual inflation of goods and servicesThe report explains that “two clear dynamics” can be seen: “Until the first quarter of 2024, inflationary growth represents a greater increase in goods, then a decrease in both indicators, but especially in goods. The decline in inflation and the change in relative prices are critical achievements of the current administration“.

Salary section

In reference to wagesThe report indicates that the average income of registered workers It is still lower than what was achieved in 2023and explains that in addition to retiredthe “The biggest losers are public sector workers.”.

The report then shows that monetary measures showed more significant improvements than cognitive indicators, suggesting thisLow poverty reduction can be overestimated While the decline in poverty can be confirmed by other indicators. But the report indicates this Structural inequality persists, with the lowest social and educational classes being hardest hit by the crisisAlthough there is also a significant deterioration in the middle sectors.

The report highlights an important fact: Some families were able to add more income, but this did not allow them to increase their consumption capacity Nor does it reduce the financial pressures they are experiencing.

In this context, the report explains this The recent decline in poverty rates has been achieved due to inflationary slowdown and partial recovery of income, while the decline in want is due to the success of programs such as AUH, Alimentar Card and others.. According to the report, if these state policies were not in place, the rate of destitution “would practically double, even in the current scenario… The results presented contribute to the assertion that programs are necessary but not sufficient to reverse the structural deficit.”

Regarding future expectations, The lower sectors are witnessing the most intergenerational decline, Considering that they are worse off than their parents, but at the same time they have great positive expectations about their children’s future. With regard to the level of convergence Pessimism about the economy grows as social class decreases. Asked about next year, “A little bit More than 40% expect a worse economic situation for the countryWhile only 24% expect the situation to worsen for themselves or their families.”

The lower classes, the ones that fall further back

The report explains this During crisis/adaptation, it is the lower classes that decline the most. In the later stage, the middle and lower classes in particular improve. During the stabilization phase, secularism persists and even deepens under conditions of economic stress in the very low class. Likewise, the upper middle class does not show very clear improvements by this indicator, as is the case with the traditional measure of poverty by income.

towards And the ability to save, the report indicates, is still structurally low: Between 8% and 16% of the population admitted their ability to save, “with a continuing downward trend between 2010 and 2025,” but they assert “The recent recovery in the period 2024-2025 is limited: It is hardly enough to return to levels similar to those of 2022-2023 or 2018, without reversing the trend of accumulated deterioration. Gaps were identified by socioeconomic class: The medium to high segment focuses on the greatest saving capacity“.

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