The first underwater drone attack on a Russian submarine in Novorossiysk marks a turning point in the asymmetrical battle for the Black Sea, as Ukraine and Russia seek to disrupt each other’s economic and military operations in the region.
Only two Russian submarines equipped with Kalibr missiles remain functional in the Black Sea after an attack that caused serious damage to a Kilo-class submarine carried out by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and the Navy, the latter’s spokesperson, Dmitro Pletenchuk, said on Tuesday.
According to the SBU, the ship, worth between $400 million and $500 million and equipped with four Kalibr missiles, was hit by a new Ukrainian drone, the Sub Sea Baby, causing “critical damage.”
Although the Russian military has denied the allegations and it is impossible to independently verify them, geotagged video released by the SBU shows a large explosion inside the port, next to several docked ships.
An operation in a Russian port
The operation required a lot of preparations, Pletenchuk said, noting that the Russian port of Novorossiysk, on the eastern coast of the Black Sea, is well protected.
Novorossiysk replaced Crimea as Russia’s main base in the region in 2024, after a series of drone and missile attacks that sank or damaged a third of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, including the guided-missile cruiser “Moskvá”.
Russia has already lost a submarine undergoing repair following the impact of two Ukrainian missiles in Sevastopol, in September 2023 and August 2024, Pletenchuk recalled.
Since then, Russia has continued to use its navy to attack Ukraine, most recently on Saturday when it used it to launch 16 Kalibr missiles. But the ships mostly stay in the port of Novorossiysk, where defensive barriers protect them from Ukrainian maritime drones.
The operation demonstrates that Ukrainian forces continue to optimize their drones and can reach Russian military targets located at a distance that Moscow’s forces previously considered safe, according to the US Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
The development of a new type of drone, submarines, will require costly adaptation on the part of Russia, estimates Andri Klimenko of the Ukrainian Black Sea Research Institute. Russia will now have to think twice before ordering its remaining ships to leave the base to launch attacks against Ukraine and will have to strengthen protective barriers near the port and the nearby oil terminal, he wrote on Facebook.
A sea in dispute
Although the extent of the damage suffered by the submarine is still unknown, the attack illustrates Ukraine’s strategy of using asymmetric warfare measures.
As also illustrated by the drone swarm attack on Russian military aircraft in June, this strategy focuses on destroying Russia’s key capabilities in order to undermine its ability to wage war, despite its advantage in military resources and equipment.
The operation comes at a time when Ukraine seeks to strengthen its negotiating position in order to avoid unfavorable concessions to Moscow, under pressure from the United States. The ability to “fight back” gives Ukraine a counterweight in negotiations, the country’s President Volodymyr Zelensky stressed on Monday during a German-Ukrainian economic forum.
Ukraine has recently launched at least three drone attacks on tankers involved in transporting Russian crude across the Black Sea, while continuing to strike Russian refineries and other infrastructure as far away as those in the Caspian Sea.
Ukraine’s ability to keep the Russian fleet at bay also ensures the functioning of the sea corridor from Odessa’s ports, a crucial source of revenue during the war, even as Russia continues to attack port infrastructure and civilian ships.
Russia recently launched a series of attacks on Odessa, leaving much of the city without power for three days, also hitting grain warehouses and civilian ships.
Last Friday, a Russian attack hit a Turkish ship despite calls from Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan for his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, to declare a partial ceasefire.
Despite this, 7,000 civilian ships have so far used this route and exported 162 million tonnes of goods, including 98 million tonnes of grain, Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Oleksí Kuleba said on Tuesday.
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