The central bank announced the adjustment of the exchange rate bands to the rhythm of inflation and a reserve purchase plan with which it promises to accumulate up to $ 17,000 million. A turnaround in monetary policy under pressure from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the markets that do not have confidence in sustainable reductions in country risk without a strong monetary authority.
From January 1, the central bank will remove the fixed creep peg to introduce a floating system between the bands The upper and lower bounds are updated monthly based on the past inflation rate (T-2) reported by INDEC. This mechanism, intended to dampen volatility without allowing delays, has an important technical peculiarity: by adjusting to the local CPI without taking into account international inflation, the cap of the band will increase in real terms over time, which provides a scope for increasing competitiveness of the stock market and as works Insurance against possible external shocks.
The Central Bank is changing the method of calculating the value of the official dollar
On the currency side, the roadmap explains a aggressive goal of accumulation supported by the “re-monetization” of the economy: The central bank expects the monetary base to increase from 4.2% to 4.8% of GDP, which will mean purchasing $10,000 million in 2026.
The official bet is that if the demand for money increases by one additional point of product, this absorption of dollars will occur could amount to up to $17,000 million, carried out with surgical caution through a daily intervention limit of 5% of the traded volume so as not to distort the market price.
Pressure from the IMF and the markets
The company, led by Santiago Bausili, made the decision after the fund’s spokesman, Julie Kozackwould confirm that “Monetary and foreign exchange policy should make more ambitious contributions “The government is far from achieving the foreign exchange accumulation target that the multilateral credit organization has called for $9,000 million and which it will review in February.
Although markets welcomed Bonar 2029’s placement for nearly $1,000 million, major Wall Street banks launched theirs warned about the exchange rate and assured that the system in its current form does not allow the accumulation of reserves and access international credit, as is the intention of the economic team led by Luis Caputo to finance itself.
As Perfil reported, Casa Rosada lowered the order to avoid the purchase of reserves or an increase in the price of the dollar, thus avoiding an eventual transfer of inflation. To try to control this maximum, the company has set a strict operating limit: Your daily interventions will not exceed 5% of the volume operated on the market, However, it reserves the right to make exceptional “block purchases” to capture large one-off investment or export flows.
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