Experimental research carried out in six countries – Egypt, India, Italy, Japan, Thailand and the United States – revealed a worrying observation: among all the public goods tested (economy, health, fight against corruption), only public security is capable of making citizens renounce free and fair elections. Faced with the choice between a “very dangerous” country with electoral democracy or a “very safe” country without elections, they opt for security. Violence poses a unique threat to democratic regimes.
In Brazil, where urban violence is reaching alarming levels, this dynamic is already manifesting itself. Between February and March of this year, the National Institute of Science and Technology – Representation and Democratic Legitimacy of the Federal University of Paraná administered a questionnaire to 1,500 Brazilians. The results confirm the international norm: among people whose family members were victims of violence in the last 12 months, dissatisfaction with democracy reached 64.3%, or 14 points higher than those without direct experience of violence.
- End of the monopoly on crime: the reoccupation of favelas determined by the STF begins in early 2026
The feeling of insecurity operates gradually but constantly. Among those who feel very insecure, dissatisfaction with democracy is 49.8%; among the very sure, it drops to 35%. Disbelief in the ability of justice to punish criminals increases democratic discontent to 49.7%. It is not only the violence itself, but also the feeling of impunity that erodes the legitimacy of the regime.
What makes insecurity so deadly for democracy is that it attacks the connection between the formal dimension of the regime (institutions, elections, sharing of powers) and its substantial dimension (realization of rights and well-being). Unlike dissatisfaction with the economy or health – which generate dissatisfaction with certain governments – the traumatic experience of violence transforms frustration with a public policy into a diffuse distrust with regard to the democratic system itself.
- Crime map: What are the most dangerous neighborhoods in Rio? Find out the situation you live in using the GLOBO tool
Studies show that citizens are willing to sacrifice not only elections, but especially civil liberties and institutional controls when it means living in a safer country. This hierarchy of concessions helps us understand the appeal of authoritarian discourse. The promise of a “strong hand” that would restore order, even while ignoring due process, is reinforced by capitalizing on popular fear. Brazilian data confirms this: those who are dissatisfied with democracy tend to take the law into their own hands.
Diffuse distrust paralyzes the state’s capacity to react. Skepticism limits the formation of consensus to implement long-term security and justice policies, creating a downward spiral; State ineffectiveness reinforces societal distrust, which perpetuates inefficiency.
What is at stake is not only the satisfaction of certain governments, but the legitimacy of Brazil’s democratic regime. International evidence shows that this vulnerability is universal. In the Brazilian context, where critical levels of violence are combined with a widespread sense of impunity, democracy is hostage to a spiral that can only be reversed through effective public security policies – not as a simple government program, but as a matter of survival for the regime itself.
Ednaldo Ribeiro, Fábio Vasconcellos and Daniel Rocha are researchers at the National Institute of Science and Technology – Representation and Democratic Legitimacy of the Federal University of Paraná.
About The Author
