Wagner Moura has over 90% chance of winning the Oscar, bets on the Gold Derby

The official announcement of the 2026 Oscar nominees won’t take place until January 22. Until then, there will be no shortage of bets and predictions for specialized vehicles. Like the latter from the Gold Derby: Wagner Moura has a 91.34% chance of winning the most coveted statuette in cinema, in the “Best Actor” category. Ahead of him comes Timothée Chalamet (with 93.62%) and, in first place, as the most likely winner, Leonardo DiCaprio (with 95.08%). The complete ranking presents the names of 15 players with their respective probabilities (see end of article).

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The winning probabilities of the names appearing in the rankings come from the combined predictions of three groups: experts from major media outlets, editors who cover the awards throughout the year for the Gold Derby, and the 24 users who had the highest accuracy scores at the last Oscars.

At the 2025 Oscars, Gold Derby matched winners in 18 of 23 categories. In 2022, the site achieved its best result ever, with 22 of 23 categories correct.

In addition to publishing the rankings, the site has gathered some interesting facts about the “Best Actor” category: Daniel Day-Lewis is the actor with the most wins in this category, with three; Spencer Tracy and Laurence Olivier received the most nominations, tied with nine each. The oldest winner is Anthony Hopkins, 83, while the youngest is Adrien Brody, 29. The article also points out that Wagner (who won Cannes and is nominated for a Golden Globe) has “no previous nominations” at the Oscars.

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