The trade agreement between European Union (EU) and the Mercosurblock that Brazil integrity, is in the final stages of approval – although it could still be canceled. If this is confirmed, it could represent big gains for the agro-industry Opening of the Brazilian market.
The agreement is expected to be voted on this week in the parliaments of the two economic blocs. Within Mercosur, there is a consensus among the five countries (Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay and Bolivia) that the approval is beneficial and necessary for the economies.
In Europe, there is strong resistance from some countries, mainly France and the Polandwhich aim to protect local agricultural sectors. Others, like Spain And Germanysupport this conclusion, as do EU leaders, in the hope of increased economic growth.
The French president, Emmanuel Macronand the Italian Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, try to postpone the vote in the European Parliament, scheduled for Tuesday 16. On this occasion, the text dealing with “bilateral guarantees” provided for in the agreement, referring to the protection of “sensitive agricultural products”, should be discussed.
Subsequently, the European Council, made up of the 27 EU heads of government, will hold a new vote to approve the agreement, which will require the favorable vote of 15 of them. In total, representation must be 65% of the bloc’s population.
The EU-Mercosur agreement, negotiated over around 25 years and often close to completion, is seen in Brussels as a way to diversify ties with the EU. Europeaccording to a spokesperson for the European Commission.
Waiting
Despite the opposition campaign from the French and Poles, supportive European authorities remain optimistic and They are already preparing the trip to sign the agreement, which should take place in Foz do Iguaçu (PR).
In Brazilian agribusiness, the agreement is expected to open markets, increasing and facilitating Brazil’s exports to Europe. The statements of the Minister of Agriculture, Carlos Fávaro, and Senator Teresa Cristina (PP-MS), considered one of the main representatives of agroindustry in the National Congress, reveal the sector’s concern.
In June, the minister credited President Lula for achieving the agreement and said completion should occur by March 2026. In May, the senator opined that in the current global overhaul, Europe was being left out of the new geopolitics imposed by the United States and now sees Mercosur with “different eyes”.
In article for Agro EstadãoWelber Barral, former Brazilian Foreign Trade Secretary, estimated that “there will be no explosion of meat or sugar exports to Europe.”
“In the real world, the Brazilian agricultural sector, considered a major beneficiary, will face significant obstacles. Access to the European market will be subject to quotas and restricted tariffs that still exist on sensitive products. The real gain will be in industrial areas, services and value chains linked to environmental and technological standards,” he wrote.
Barral also stressed that exporters who wish to benefit from the agreement will have to prepare, but will have time to do so. “For Brazil, the agreement will bring inevitable tasks. It will be necessary to adapt production chains, strengthen environmental traceability and respect technical standards. The cost of adaptation may be high, but it opens access to green investments and financing. For companies, the slowness of its implementation will allow time to adapt, provided that, in a world of bifurcations, Brazil does not give in to inertia.”
The agreement will also bring a parallel benefit: it strengthens Mercosur and the European Union to deal with possible tariffs from other markets. Even though the EU has reached an agreement on a reduction tariffs imposed by the United States at 15%, and Brazil having seen part of its exports removed from the list of tariff products, the two blocs are still trying to protect themselves from new shocks.
US President Donald Trump often threatens to impose tariffs on other countries if they take actions he displeases, even if they are not directly related to trade issues. Thus, with the conclusion of the agreement, Brazil, other Mercosur countries and EU countries could have a more reliable and secure trade partnership.
An adaptation that will have to be made concerns traceability in export chains of products, such as soya, beef, wood and its derivatives, coffee, cocoa, rubber and other agricultural or forestry products. The EUDR, new European legislation against deforestation, will come into force in December 2026 and requires controls and proof of the origin of the product.
However, for Brazil, the new law could end up being an opportunity because some channels are already structured, while other countries still do not have adequate georeferencing or comparable data systems.
The most sensitive point is the leather. The EU imports large volumes, 80% of Brazilian leather is exported and product traceability is interrupted in slaughterhouses, because there are no health problems.
The EU is still discussing how to recognize national tracking systems, but is expected to eventually adopt the mechanisms that already exist in each country, which could benefit Brazil.
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