The change in the foreign exchange regime once again shifted important parts of the local financial market. With the Central Bank’s decision to change the operation of the dollar float bands, The scenario in pesos ceased to be an exclusively defensive terrain and began to present concrete possibilities.
In this new card, a brokerage firm has once again put the focus on an instrument that was banned until a few weeks ago and is now resurfacing Star bonus to position yourself in local currency.
According to the report by Balance researchThe turning point lay in two specific definitions. On the one hand, the decision to adjust the band limits monthly to inflation. On the other hand, the BCRA’s express commitment to this buy back reserves, This represents a break from the previous approach, which focused almost exclusively on disinflation.
Although this combination is still in the implementation phase, it improves the predictability of the exchange rate and reduces the risk of a sudden discrete jump.
This regime change had an immediate impact on market prices. According to the announcements a initial sell-off both in cash with settlement and in instruments in pesos. The CCL weakened towards the $1,550 area while local interest rates adjusted upwards, particularly in the long section of the curve.
For Balanz, this movement was far from a warning signal, but rather an opening Entry opportunity.
The bonus selected for playing the new scenario
In this context, the specific recommendation focuses on: TY30P, a fixed rate peso bond with a long maturity (May 30, 2030) and a put option. The choice is no coincidence. According to the analysis, the long part of the curve is the one that best captures the benefit of possible interest rate compression in a context where The new exchange rate system is intended to help reduce the risk premium.
Balanz estimates that under his current assumptions the Measured by the CCL, TY30P could offer a return of around 8% in dollar terms by the end of April 2026. This calculation results from a combination of factors. On the one hand, an expected decline in bond yields of close to 26% towards the area of 23.8%. On the other hand, an exchange rate projection that places that CCL around $1,644 for this horizon, still within the range and without disruptive scenarios.
The attractiveness of the instrument is also explained by its entry price, which was penalized after the initial market reaction. With values around 110.9 and a forecast price near 126.5 for April, the recovery potential is significant even in conservative scenarios.
In addition, the breakeven of the exchange rate is above $1,750, This leaves considerable scope for moderate movements in the financial dollar.
Why not CER and yes, fixed rate?
A central point of the report is the comparison with other alternatives in pesos. Although the CER adjusted bonds -Inflation- Balanz warns that this will continue to be a common reference in high inflation contexts in the long term implicit inflation around the 1.8% monthlya level that they consider demanding. In other words, for these instruments to be clearly superior, inflation would have to be consistently upwards, and that is not the case Today it is not part of the base case.
On the other hand, fixed-rate bonds allow for the capture of a decline in yields as the market begins to internalize that the new exchange rate system reduces extreme risks. In this context, duration plays a role and increases the potential return.
He TY30P, In particular, it combines this exposure with a structure that limits some of the risk, making it attractive for tactical strategies.
The role of the calendar and the income of dollars
The time horizon proposed by Balanz is not arbitrary, as April appears to be a key month as it coincides with the start of the seasonal inflow of agricultural dollars, a factor that has historically tended to ease exchange rate tensions.
If the bond generates attractive returns up to this point, the analysis suggests that the attractiveness could increase even further as long as the regime remains consistent.
Furthermore, the report suggests that the BCRA would have scope to do so buy between $8,000 and $10,000 million in reserves in 2026a fact that reinforces the idea of greater exchange rate stability. If this process is consolidated, the official exchange rate could move relatively stable within the band, with the CCL at just one value 5% abovefar away from stressful scenarios.
Risks that remain in play
Despite the constructive tone, the report does not ignore the risks and Balanz makes it clear that the exchange rate stability scenario would actually mean an appreciation of the real exchange rate, which always causes debate in the Argentine economy.
Furthermore, sovereign risk convergence is not yet complete, limiting the speed at which interest rates could be lowered.
Also plays a key role political credibility. In order to consolidate the new system, it must remain consistent over time. Any sign of a turnaround, fiscal noise or an abrupt change in BCRA’s strategy could quickly impact demand for peso instruments.
The recommendation applies to all of this TY30P is not presented as a long-term structural bet, but as a clearly defined tactical strategy. The new banding system changed the balance of risk, improved predictability and created an attractive entry point after the initial price adjustment.
In this context, the bond chosen by Balanz appears to be the most efficient vehicle to capture this change in market sentiment.
And with somewhat clearer rules, an explicit commitment to building reserves and a dollar that is moving in predictable zones for now, the market is once again looking at the pesos with less suspicion. And in this transition, The TY30P is considered the instrument that best suits this new stage.
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