What is hindering the second phase of the US-driven ceasefire between Israel and Hamas?

Israel and Hamas agreed to a first phase of a U.S.-backed ceasefire last October, offering hope for a possible path to ending the armed conflict in the territory.

Two months later, Gaza remains stuck in the first phase. It is divided into two parts and its population is displaced and lives in ruins.

In the second phase of the ceasefire proposed by US President Donald Trump, both Israel and Hamas face difficult decisions.

Hamas must give up its weapons and Israel must withdraw its troops from Gaza and transfer security responsibility to an international force.

Forming a government to govern the Gaza Strip is another challenge that must be resolved, as is Israel’s search for the last remaining hostage to be extradited: Ran Gvili.

Gvili, an Israeli police officer, was kidnapped by Hamas during the attack on October 7, 2023. Hamas said searches of Gaza’s rubble had yielded no results on his whereabouts.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has insisted that Hamas must return all hostages – dead or alive – before the deal can move to the next phase.

Gvili’s parents, Talik and Itzik, were told last year that the officer had not survived.

“They stole our son, they stole him,” his mother told the BBC. “They know where it is. They just try to hide it or keep it. They play with us,” the father remarks.

The couple believes that once all other hostages return, Hamas will want to keep their son as collateral for future negotiations.

For their part, Hamas officials told the BBC that these accusations were false and that Israel was trying to avoid implementing the agreement.

However, according to newspapers, the US wants to move on to the second phase of the ceasefire Haaretz And The Times of Israel.

In an interview with the BBC, Gershon Baskin, a former Israeli hostage negotiator – particularly in the 2011 deal for soldier Gilad Shalit – points out that Israel “doesn’t have many options” to postpone the second phase of the Gaza deal.

Baskin says Trump has made his decision “very clear” and will tell Netanyahu that “there is no room for delay.”

The former negotiator, who played an important role in communication between Israel and Hamas, added that the issue of the hostage’s body not being handed over was “not a sufficient reason” to delay the start of a second instance of the agreement.

Disarming Hamas in a mutually acceptable manner is by far the biggest obstacle to advancing the ceasefire to the next phase.

According to Israeli media, Turkey has strongly requested to become part of the International Stabilization Force (ISF), which will be responsible for disarming the Islamist group. Hayom.

Netanyahu has clearly stated his intention to prevent this and has the support of the US, the media said.

To date, no country has officially announced its joining the ISF.

According to Baskin, Hamas may agree to “put away its weapons” and possibly hand them over to a Palestinian government or third party, but not to Israel or the United States.

And he adds that the US knows that disarming Hamas is linked to Israel’s complete withdrawal from Gaza and that this will be difficult to achieve as long as Israeli forces remain in Gaza.

Israel currently controls about 53% of the Gaza Strip.

As part of the first phase of the ceasefire agreement, Israel agreed to a partial withdrawal of troops in the northern, southern and eastern Gaza Strip. The established boundary became known as the “yellow line.”

The second phase requires a mutual agreement on a renewed withdrawal of the Israeli army, mechanisms for disarmament, reconstruction and arrangements for international monitoring.

These issues are considered sensitive because they directly affect the security of Israeli cities bordering Gaza and the future of Israel’s presence in the so-called Philadelphia Corridor, a stretch of land across Gaza’s border with Egypt, which includes the Rafah crossing.

For General Israel Ziv, a former expert on Israeli military operations, both Hamas and Israel are hesitant to accelerate the advance toward the second phase.

“Hamas does not want to lose control and the Israeli side also wants to stay in Gaza for political reasons,” Ziv told the BBC.

According to the military, Trump is the only person who can force both sides, but time is of the essence.

“By waiting, I think we missed the opportunity because Hamas is reorganizing and regaining strength,” he added.

Another major obstacle is the question of how to form the interim administrative body that will govern Gaza in the next phase.

Although the proposed plan calls for the formation of an independent Palestinian technocratic government separate from both Hamas and the Palestinian Authority (PA), Israel suspects that the involvement of representatives from both groups will be inevitable.

The Israeli government fears this could allow Hamas to retain its influence in the new government institutions or lead the PA to return to Gaza.

Previously, the Palestinian Authority exercised only limited control over parts of the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, but since Hamas took control of Gaza in 2007, it has governed only parts of the Israeli-occupied West Bank.

Netanyahu’s government rejects any involvement of the PA or Hamas and instead calls for a “neutral Palestinian entity” to administer the territory.

The Israeli government also fears that the second phase could mean “the actual beginning of the establishment of a Palestinian state on the side of Israel,” said Baskin.

These key issues are expected to be discussed at a meeting between Netanyahu and Trump in Florida later this month.

The US president, who negotiated the ceasefire in Gaza, plans to announce the composition of the newly created Gaza Peace Committee early next year.

According to Israeli media, during his meeting with Trump, Netanyahu is expected to push for the disarmament of Hamas, block its participation in a future administration of the Gaza Strip, ensure the deployment of the Israeli army in the so-called buffer zone and prevent the deployment of Turkish forces in the Gaza Strip.

Trump, on the other hand, could pressure Netanyahu to “stop Israeli violations of the ceasefire agreement,” Baskin notes.

And he adds: “Israel has violated the ceasefire more than Hamas.”

Nearly 400 Palestinians have been killed and more than 1,000 injured in Gaza since the Oct. 10 deal, according to the Hamas-run Health Ministry.

According to the organization, the death toll in Gaza since the war began on October 7, 2023 is 70,665 people.

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