What small businesses operating in Vaca Muerta expect by 2026

A GAPP report shows that 60% of companies are optimistic for 2026 and 37% have moderate expectations for the major Vaca Muerta projects

12/26/2025 – 5:00 p.m

He Argentine group of oil suppliers (GAPP) presented its survey for the October-December 2025 period, which describes a scenario of a decline in the activity of industrial SMEs in the energy sector. The report concludes that there is continued stagnation in the value chain, although with a slight improvement compared to the previous quarter.

The operational reality of GAPP member companies reflects the complex situation of the industry. More than 65% of companies operate with at least 25% unused production capacityaccording to the job you accessed iProfessional.

Within this universe, 51% registered medium idle capacity (between 25% and 50%). 16% reported high or very high waste of their resources. In contrast, only 9% of companies stated that they currently have no idle capacity.

Despite the low activity, companies are making efforts to maintain employment and maintain their technical skills. Despite it, Human resources indicators are showing early signs of tension.

A complex end of the year for SMEs

In this sense, 31% of companies had to reduce their workforce in the last quarter19% chose to shorten shifts or workdays, and 70% of companies canceled or delayed planned pay for new workers, an example of the caution prevailing in the industry.

Another focus of the survey was on business relationships with operators and large service companies. The results show significant delays and unfavorable conditions for SMEs.

Only 39% of those surveyed said that negotiation deadlines were adhered to correctly. In terms of amounts, the majority face difficulties: 47% achieved revisions under unfavorable conditions or through concessions, while 14% were unable to update their contracts in any way.

Optimism for the great projects of 2026

Despite the current stagnation situation, expectations for next year remain at a high level. 60% of companies were between optimistic and very optimistic about the future situation in Argentina, and 37% were moderate about the forecasts for 2026.

This enthusiasm is fundamentally based on the implementation of strategic projects related to the Large Investment Incentive Regime (RIGI), the further development of the Vaca Muerta Oil Sur pipeline and export terminal and the liquefied natural gas (LNG) initiatives.

Given this scenario Only 3% of businesspeople said they were worried about the market and the impact on your business until 2026. The fourth quarter survey thus confirms continued stagnation in the energy industry value chain, albeit with a slight improvement compared to the previous quarter.

In summary, companies maintain their operating structure, but with moderate utilization, delays in updating contracts and adverse negotiations on updating amounts, etc Despite the unfavorable scenario, the majority have positive expectations In view of upcoming projects, attention is paid to maintaining employment and maintaining technical performance.