what to expect from the December inflation preview

According to the Economic Research Department (DPEc) of Banco Daycoval, the inflation forecast is expected to increase by 0.22% for the month, emphasizing the pressure on services, driven mainly by the sharp increase in plane tickets. On the other hand, the prices of food and industrial products should help to contain the rise in the index, still reflecting Black Friday discounts.

For administered prices, we expect a slight increase, influenced by health plan readjustments. In the opposite direction, deflations in electricity and gasoline tend to help contain inflation during the month.

Macro Intelligence, in turn, forecasts an increase of 0.25% for the December IPCA-15, with cumulative inflation at 4.41% in 12 months. The consultancy highlights a slight increase at the margin, with an increase in services also driven by airline tickets and administered prices, partially offset by the decline in industrial goods and the relative stability of domestic power.

Economist André Galhardo, from Análise Econômica, estimates that the IPCA-15 for December should increase by around 0.40%, after a rise of 0.20% in November. If confirmed, the indicator would end the year with inflation around 4.57%, slightly above the center of the objective. For the full IPCA for the month, a variation close to 0.40% is also forecast, which would lead inflation in 12 months to fall from 4.46% to around 4.37%, still within the tolerance band of the current objective.