What will the electrical system look like from 2026?

A report shows that users will cover almost 86% of electricity costs in 2026, with targeted subsidies and a lower government weight in tariffs

12/18/2025 – 11:14 am

The system of Subsidies for the electrical energy Argentina is experiencing a profound reorganization. A private technical report analyzing this Resolution 848/25 des Energy Minister assumes that in 2026 Users will, on average, cover almost that 86% of the seasonal electricity price (PEST), while the state contribution is reduced to just over 24%.

This is a structural change that redefines the relationship between tariffs, subsidies and public spending. If these predictions occur, coverage will be paid The number of users will see a cumulative increase of 191% compared to 2023a variant that makes this period one of the most relevant redesigns of the tariff system in years.

From general support to targeted support

Official data reflects a sustained shift in logic. In the end 2023He Condition absorbs more than 70% of energy costs electric, while the user They hardly faced it 29.4% of the price.

This equation began to change quickly: By September 2025, the government contribution fell to 33.1% and user participation increased to 66.9%.

The new design abandons the system of massive subsidies and moves to a segmented systemor when aid is concentrated on lower-income households and the rest pay a value that is increasingly closer to the true cost of care.

What explains the jump towards 2026?

Next year’s forecasts are supported by several regulatory decisions. Including:

• The abolition of tariff caps
• The definition of basic consumption differentiates according to income level – 350 kWh per month for N2 users (low income) and 250 kWh for N3 (middle income) –
• The gradual convergence between the bonuses applied to the PEST and the wholesale electricity market price (PIST).

According to technical analysis, these factors explain a large part of the predicted increase in user coverage, with the aim of introducing clearer price signals without returning to indiscriminate subsidy systems.

The impact depends on income level

The segmentation shows clear differences:

• In the houses of low income (N2)The amount of coverage paid increased from just 8.65% in 2023 to almost 30% in 2025 and is estimated to reach 44.16% in 2026. Overall, the increase is more than 410%.
• For users of Average income (N3)The development is also significant: from 10.7% in 2023 it rose to 41.25% in 2025, with a forecast of 51.61% for next year, representing a cumulative increase of almost 383%.

Less subsidies, more tax regulations

From a public finance perspective, reducing the weight of state contributions is one of the central axes of energy policy. The report underlines this The greatest efforts of users are aimed at correcting historical distortions, reducing spending on subsidies and relieving the burden on the state budget.

At the same time, the new system aims to promote more efficient consumption and align prices with the actual costs of the electricity system.

A step-by-step roadmap

The document describes in detail the regulatory framework, the operational criteria for targeting and the calculation methods used. In this sense, it is highlighted that the process is not abrupt: it responds to the planning established from the end of 2023 with staggered adjustments that make it possible to foresee impacts and avoid disorderly jumps in interest rates.

With this panorama, 2026 is shaping up to be a crucial year for the consolidation of the new funding regime. If the forecast scenarios materialize, the electricity market will move towards more realistic prices, with targeted subsidies and a lower fiscal burden.