A number of factors allow us to anticipate one Strengthening the international soybean market. On the one hand, this is known China resumed trade relations with the United States and has already purchased 3.11 million tonnes of the 12 million tonnes it had committed to purchasing.
It should be recalled that China historically imported between 25 and 27 million tons from that country; However, due to the trade conflict, it had redirected part of its purchases to Brazil (11 million tons more than in the last cycle) and Argentina (4 million more). This redirection of demand towards South American products helped improve local prices.
“China’s recent purchases in the United States are putting upward pressure on the Chicago market. In addition, the inventory-to-consumption ratio in that country is at a low level, around 7%. If this data is taken into account and China continues to buy, a bull market should emerge in the Argentine summer,” he predicts. Matias Amorosi, Managing Director of the AZ Group.
Consequently, It cannot be ruled out that the price of soybeans could rise slightly, Helped by the Reduction in retentions. Also contributing to this scenario are the recent interest rate cut in the United States and the weakness of the dollar, factors that reinforce an optimistic climate for the oilseed in the medium term.
However, bearish factors could also be on the horizon. The most important reason, according to Amorosi, is that both are the case In Brazil, as in Argentina, there are prospects for very good soybean production. (177 and 49 million tons), which could put negative pressure on the market at the time of harvest, especially if the weather continues to be favorable for the development of the crop in the coming months.
“In the 2025/26 campaign 40% early corn and 60% late corn are grown. Seeding development has been faster than in previous cycles and the top-quality crops show very good or excellent general condition, except in areas affected by excess water. The late corn was planted with good humidity and they could achieve trend yields if they were not subject to water restrictions during flowering,” describes the technician.
The latest estimates put a corn crop in the order of 59 million tons, with an advanced marketing level compared to previous years, justified by the good prices at harvest time.
The AZ-Group recommendation is to cover this crop: ““If production of 60 million tonnes is confirmed, there will be a large surplus for export that will need to be placed in non-traditional destinations.” the professional warnings.
“April 2026 prices can ensure adequate crop profitability, so it would be advisable to cover at least part of the expected production through sales options or other market instruments without affecting physical grain for now,” he adds.
The international grain scene has a very high level of production, which has led to a decline in prices. In addition, demand in Argentina has already purchased 7.5 million tons, guaranteeing supplies for the coming months and explaining the stability of current prices.
The expectation of one The local harvest is more than 25 million tons, requiring the export of about 14 million. About that 6 million could be allocated to Brazil, but it will be necessary to place 7-8 million in distant markets where Argentina will be less competitive in terms of price.
Amorosi said there will be strong wheat supply pressures for much of 2026. It remains to be clarified how the market will relax as exports increase. Meanwhile, producers have little incentive to hold on to commodities as futures market revenues are very low (less than $5 per month in the first half of the year).
Therefore, those who have not taken out a hedge and have low-quality wheat should sell it at current prices and try to invest the money in financial instruments that will allow them to recover some of the value.
The Prices of fertilizers and agrochemicals They continue to show attractive relationships with the value of grain. For example, the price of urea fell to $550 per tonne after reaching a peak of $630 in mid-year. Therefore, it is a good time to source the missing inputs because as the grains continue to increase in value, the inputs are expected to become more expensive “out of pity.”
According to a survey by the AZ Group, Customer producers have already purchased 80% of the necessary inputs. Amorosi’s recommendation would be to seize the moment to complete what is left by supplying available grain in exchange for fertilizers or agrochemicals.
The ratio between grain and machinery is also favorable, especially when soybeans or corn are delivered in a barter transaction machines. For example, It takes 14% less soybeans to purchase a sprayer than the average for the last three years And 28% less when buying a combine harvester. When paying with wheat, the equation is not so practical.
In summary, there are prospects for bullish coarse grain markets at the international level. However, this scenario may not be fully applicable to the domestic market, where bountiful harvests of corn, sunflowers and soybeans are expected.
“Given this reality, the use of available commercial tools will be a priority so as not to lose in the collection what has been obtained in quantity,” Amorosi warns in conclusion.
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