With the draw for the 2026 World Cup already completed and the calendar taking shape, the time for predictions also began. There will be 48 teams competing between June 11th and July 19th in the United States, Mexico and Canada Only a handful of players appear today with any real chance of winning the world title at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey. In this game of anticipation, the company Opta resorted to its supercomputer to add numbers to the illusion and skepticism.
The statistical model, which processes millions of simulations based on historical data, current performances and squad projections, has been placed Spain as the main candidate for the title. The team led by Luis de la Fuente appears with one 17% chance of becoming world championsupported by its status as the current European champion, collective solidity and a generation that combines talent, youth and experience in equal measure. For Opta, the balance of its midfield and the diversity of attacking resources make the difference in the run-up to the tournament.
France seems to be very close at 14.1%.. The team around Kylian Mbappé, champion in 2018 and runner-up in 2022, once again presents itself as a competitive machine that has proven itself on the big stages. The immediate precedent and continuity of a hard core in their squad make Les Bleus one of the rivals to beat.
England completes the podium with 11.8%.. The arrival of Thomas Tuchel fuels expectations for a team that has endured six decades of World Cup frustrations but boasts one of the most talented generations in their recent history in top scorer Harry Kane. For the supercomputer it is Three lions They have reason to look forward to breaking the curse that has weighed on them since 1966.
The Argentine team only appears in fourth place with 8.7%. The data is startling considering that the Albiceleste are the reigning world champions and two-time champions of the Americas and will be aiming to do something no one has managed since Brazil in 1962: defend the title.
Lionel Scaloni’s team comes with the foundation that conquered Qatar 2022, topped the South American qualifiers without problems and still has Lionel Messi as its football and symbolic flag. They will share Group J with Algeria, Austria and Jordan and start as one of the most feared teams beyond what the probabilities suggest. Although everything suggests that they face a very difficult game in the round of 16, against Spain or Uruguay.
Behind them are Germany (7.1%) and Portugal (6.6%). Both appear as secondary candidates, partly due to the irregularities shown in recent tournaments, although they have enough hierarchy to lead a deep journey. In Portugal’s case, the World Cup could mark the final end of Cristiano Ronaldo’s cycle.
Brazil has continued to decline at just 5.6%. Five-time world champion and last winner on North American soil, in 1970 in Mexico, the Verdeamarela pays in Opta’s analysis for its recent ups and downs in competition and a transition process that now has Carlo Ancelotti as driver. Individual talent is beyond question; Collective consistency, yes.
Those who have never been champions include the Netherlands with 5.2%, still searching for his first trophy after the recent memory of the semi-final at Euro 2024; Norway supported with 2.3% almost exclusively due to Erling Haaland’s goal scoring strength; and Colombia with 2%supported by their good performance in qualifying and the offensive leadership of Luis Díaz.
The report also mentioned the role of hosts. Mexico is the best positioned of the three operators with 1.3%.followed by United States (0.9%) and Canada (0.4%). None of them ever made it past the quarter-finals of a World Cup, and the statistical model reflects these historical limitations. Nevertheless, the opening match will be played at the Azteca Stadium and Mexico will be the protagonist, another chapter in its long relationship with the World Cup.
Even assigned to Opta 3.7% of global probabilities for the teams coming from the hopefula number influenced by the possible presence of Italymissing in Russia 2018 and Qatar 2022, but is always able to change any forecast.
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