Betting markets on the succession of the current Chairman of the Federal Reserve (Federal Reserve Bank, the central bank of the United States), Jerome Powell, whose term expires in May 2026, have focused on practically one name in recent weeks. White House Economic Advisor Kevin Hassett is now considered the most likely candidate to assume this role.
According to Polymarket data, the probability of Hassett being appointed by US President Donald Trump to head the monetary authority is 84%. In other words, nearly nine out of ten market analysts are betting on him as the future head of the Fed.
Former Federal Reserve Director Kevin Warsh comes next, with only 6% of mentions. The name of US Central Bank Director Christopher Waller, who is a member of the Board of Governors of the Monetary Authority, was also mentioned.
It will be announced at the beginning of the year
And on Tuesday (2/12), during a meeting at the White House, Trump said that Powell’s potential successor as Fed Chairman was present – while introducing Hassett.
Trump also said that he will announce the name of his nominee for the presidency of the North American Federation early next year. According to the Republican, the decision was taken practically.
Who is Kevin Hassett?
The main candidate to head the Federal Reserve Bank was a senior economist at the US central bank and a researcher at the American Enterprise Institute. For more than two decades, Hassett has been part of Trump’s GOP economic policymaking circle.
He was also an advisor to Republican Party icons such as former Senator John McCain (1936-2018), in 2000, and Mitt Romney, in 2012, and also to former US President George W. Bush, in 2004.
Hassett also worked at the Hoover Institution and was a professor at Columbia Business School.
In Donald Trump’s first term as President of the United States, between 2017 and 2021, Hassett was one of the biggest supporters of the government’s tax cuts and tax agenda. After Trump left the White House, Hassett remained his informal adviser.
In recent months, Hassett has raised his tone against monetary policy and criticized the Fed’s alleged slowness in starting an interest rate cutting cycle. It also raised doubts about “possible partisan patterns” in the publication of official employment data in the country.
Currently, the US interest rate is between 3.75% and 4% annually (after a 0.25 percentage point cut at the last Fed meeting), and most market analysts are betting on another interest rate cut by the end of 2025.
According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, the probability of a new 0.25 percentage point cut in US interest rates is 89.2%. On the other hand, 10.8% of investors are betting on maintaining the current level. The next Fed meeting is scheduled to be held next week, on December 9-10.