On the second day of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, one of President Vladimir Putin’s advisers refused to obey his orders. Putin had asked Dmitry Kozak to demand the Ukrainians surrender, but he denied it, saying he did not know what the Russian leader wanted with the invasion. During the conversation, Kozak said he was prepared to be arrested or shot for his refusal. Only later did it become known that he was on loudspeaker, leading other high-ranking government members to testify about the insubordination.
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Kozak was the only dissenting voice in the Kremlin. While few are willing to challenge him, Putin wields almost total power in waging the war, which partly explains why he still maintains his maximalist demands despite pressure for a ceasefire.
Kozak, 67, resigned as deputy chief of staff in September. Since then, in interviews, six people close to him have described the 30-year-old Putin confidant’s transformation into an anti-war voice among the country’s elite.
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Kozak, the highest-ranking person in government to break with the president during the war, began working with Putin in the 1990s, when they both worked at St. Petersburg City Hall, and felt his personal ties guaranteed him a degree of security. So far, he has not publicly voiced his criticism and declined to be interviewed for this story.
— His predictions, revealed to Putin shortly before the start of the offensive, turned out to be extremely accurate, — said political scientist Arkady Dubnov.
Kozak’s hands shook as he began to explain, sometimes stuttering, why negotiations with Ukraine were going nowhere. He claimed he had more to say, but Putin interrupted him. It was February 21, 2021. At a live-streamed meeting of the Russian Security Council, high-ranking members stood next to the president, who was preparing to order the invasion.
Kozak did not sing the song.
He had known Putin longer than anyone else in the room. He led his first re-election campaign, took charge of preparations for the 2014 Winter Olympics and oversaw the annexation of Crimea.
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At the start of 2022, Kozak was discussing with the Ukrainians the future of the east of the country, already in melting. He attended an eight-hour meeting in Paris that “sent very positive signals.” The Ukrainians and Americans said they believed he was actually seeking a diplomatic solution and not buying time for invasion preparations.
While Putin lined up his troops, Kozak wrote a report citing the negative consequences of the war, according to those close to him. According to a person who read the text, Kozak warned of the possibility of Sweden and Finland joining NATO, the main Western military alliance, which happened a few months later.
On February 21, Kozak addressed the Security Council again, in a segment closed to the press. He warned that Ukrainians would resist, sanctions would be strengthened and Russia’s position in the world would be shaken. Putin ordered almost everyone in the room to leave, except Kozak and some permanent council members, and asked his adviser to make the case. Then he found himself alone with Kozak, who was still in the pulpit, about 10 meters from the president.
– What is this? — asked Putin, according to sources close to Kozak. —Why are you against it?
Kozak, allies say, did not give in. It was the last time the two spoke in person before Russian bombs began falling on kyiv on February 24.
Some news outlets claimed that Kozak called Andriy Yermak, then the Ukrainian president’s chief of staff. Volodymyr Zelensky, a few hours after the invasion, demanded surrender. Kozak insists that this story is false and claims that it was Yermak who called, seeking to negotiate a peace deal as quickly as possible.
By the second day of the invasion, Kozak was negotiating a ceasefire with Davyd Arakhamia, another member of the Ukrainian government, according to three people close to him. The deal would involve security guarantees for Ukraine and a withdrawal from all regions of the country except Crimea and parts of the east.
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The move infuriated Putin, who criticized him on the phone for exceeding his powers when negotiating territorial issues, and ordered him to inform kyiv that Russia would only negotiate the capitulation of the neighboring country. For Kozak, Putin changed his position on negotiations and he told the Russian president that he could not negotiate if he did not know Russia’s war goals.
Putin ordered Kozak to negotiate as requested, but he refused: it was during this conversation that the former adviser to the president said he was ready to be arrested or killed. Eventually, Kozak agreed to inform the Ukrainians of his surrender demand. He called Arakhamia, with Putin listening to the conversation. Arakhamia refused.
The next day, Putin changed his mind again, according to three people. That morning, First Deputy Chief of Staff Serghei Kirienko told Kozak that another Kremlin aide, Vladimir Medinsky, would now lead negotiations with kyiv. A few hours later, Medinsky and billionaire Roman Abramovich arrived at Kozak’s house, declaring that they were going to Belarus to negotiate with the Ukrainians, but with new orders: to discuss security guarantees, but not Ukraine’s borders.
Yermak, Arakhamia and Abramovich did not respond to interview requests, nor did the Kremlin.
Kozak will never return to his post as negotiator with Ukraine. He lost power to Kirienko, now responsible for relations with the countries of the former Soviet Union. At the same time, he kept his post in the presidential administration, just blocks from the Kremlin, where he met with Western emissaries, people who have followed the process say. With cigarettes in hand, he outlined possible peace plans and told visitors that he had access to Putin and that the president was aware of the conversations.
At one point, Putin suggested Kozak make proposals to improve Russia’s economic environment, and the report sent in response left some government officials astonished.
According to them, the text proposed to Putin to end the war, negotiate with Ukraine and carry out internal reforms. Kozak proposed independence of the judiciary, a near heresy, given the connection between the courts and the security services. The ideas were shared with people outside the Kremlin, which to his allies looked like an attempt to distance himself from the president.
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For Dubnov, Kozak believed that “he was working in the service of the state and not in Putin’s personal interests.” The breakdown in relations, the political analyst believes, came after Kozak “discovered that, for Putin, there is no red line that he is not prepared to cross.”
— The price that the country pays for the great power ambitions of its leader has become unacceptable (for Kozak) — said Dubnov.
Like many members of the Russian elite, Kozak shows loyalty to Putin by not publicly criticizing him, and he has received similar signals from the president. He traveled to Israel for medical treatment, as well as to Türkiye and the United Arab Emirates. It was a sign of confidence from Putin, given the limits imposed on the travel of members of the government. In September, Putin accepted Kozak’s resignation. This is remarkable, given that Putin prefers to maintain the loyalty of his senior officials by appointing them to other positions rather than letting them leave the civil service.
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