This is a newsletter from Kiko Llaneras, a bulletin with current data and explanations: Be careful to receive it and follow the upcoming elections in 2026.
On Sunday 21, elections will be held in Extremadura called in advance by the popular María Guardiola, who aspires to remain in the presidency. The latest polls published – last month – place the PP as the first force, with 42% of the votes, followed by the PSOE (30%), Vox (14%) and the coalition with Podemos and IU, Unidas for Extremadura (9%).
The clearest trend of the campaign is the regression of the PSOE. Since that call – with a successful candidate and against a backdrop of domestic corruption scandals – the polls have fallen five points, from 35% to 30%. Meanwhile, suben Vox (a few points) and Unidas de Extremadura (two more points).
Estimation of scans
The following graph represents the prediction of the scales prepared from the previous measurement of the probes. The central result is that the PP has around 30 seats, followed by the PSOE (21), Vox (9) and UxE (5). It is decided that the people will certainly have a majority of 33 seats and that to win the nomination, they will need the support of another party, probably Vox.
Can the PP have a majority?
But what is the probability of obtaining other results? A left-wing majority would be practically excluded with these surveys. But the absolute majority of the PP is not impossible. Given the historical accuracy of the surveys in Spain, the probability that the PP improves its surveys and reaches the 33 decisive scales is 12%, which is likely to happen once in 10. Another possible surprise: that Juntos por Extremadura crosses the 5% barrier and enters the Assembly. Our model gives this same probability, around 5%. But I have less than 1% options to enter and be decisive in the majority.
To make this estimate, I used a statistical model (see methodology), similar to those we have published in Catalonia, the Basque Country, Galicia, for the 2023 general elections and for decades of other electoral cities. The model is fed by probes and integrates other key information and its history. In Spain, polls deviate from the result by only one point per party, on average, and it is not uncommon for errors to be made by three points or more. It is not a whim if the horquillas are enlarged: they represent the true precision of the probes of yesteryear.
Derechization and national reading
All surveys anticipate an uprooting of the region. In the autonomous elections of 2023, the sum of the rights obtained was 48% of the votes —with PP, Vox and the rest of the Cs—, which supposes a historic record in Extremadura. Luego, this trend continued: in the general elections of 2023, the decision obtained the full 51% of the votes, and a year later, in the European elections of 2024, it obtained almost 55%, summarizing the PP (41.4%), Vox (10%) and Se Acabó la Fiesta (3.4%).
The turn to the right is even observed in the estimates of the CEI, which has overestimated the left since 2018. In its pre-election survey, published a few days ago, the CEI estimates the sum of the PP and Vox at 56% of the votes. The decision can be explained with the CEI transfer matrix: How do you now say that the extremists who will vote for each party in the 2023 general elections will vote? Mirad:
A key is located in the PSOE column. In 2023, 9% of socialist voters say they will now vote for the PP. And up to 3% guarantees that it will be made by Vox. Furthermore, the right-wing parties, PP and Vox, have fewer undecided voters.
These trends also point towards the 40dB probe. which we published last month. Around 11% of PSOE voters in the 2023 elections say they will now vote for the PP and a further 3% say they will vote for Vox. Furthermore, this investigation reveals losses of the PSOE in favor of Unidas por Extremadura, after years where the flow dominated in the opposite direction. 15% of PSOE 2023 voters say they will vote for their left party.
Extremadura will be a thermometer of the national situation. Will answer questions. First: is derechización as strong as it is to bring it to 55-56%, what does the survey say? This would be a historic jump for the region, with seven points from 48% of 2023. And second: is Vox’s growth on the PP as great as the data suggests or is it something special? On Sunday we will find out.
Methodology. Our calculation of scales results from a three-step process: 1) we start from the vote estimated by means of polls, published last month, before its distribution was prohibited by electoral law; 2) we estimate the vote in each province from this average, taking as a reference the results of each party in the autonomous elections of 2023; 3) we integrate the uncertainty of the estimates by taking into account their historical precision; and 4) we simulated 20,000 elections, varying the votes each time and distributing the votes according to D’Hondt. If you can read a more detailed version of our methodology in the description of it 2023 General Election Model.
This is a newsletter from Kiko Llaneras, an exclusive bulletin for El País subscribers, with current data and explanations: write to receive it.
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