Trumpism triumphs while Trump suffers: the economy puts everyone in their place
The right-wing populist parties in Trump’s orbit live in an era of splendor: they do not govern, but they fascinate voters. In reality, one thing leads to another. When they have to hit the carpet and deal with inflation, things get tough. What happens to his mentor:
- Minute and result: Last Sunday’s Gallup poll (here) placed Trump at his lowest approval rating (36%). None of their policies reach 50%. Another Fox poll finds that 76% of Americans think Trump has made the economy worse. The lack of inflation control and the image offered by the government lockdown are harming citizens’ perceptions.
- AI yes, AI no: The dissociation between Trump and MAGA Trumpism finds its symbol in AI. The president takes photos with the CEOs of major technology companies, which determine stock indexes. But the workers, those to whom Trump promised to return their bucolic industrial jobs taken by China, disagree and have told their governors so. They fear that AI will make the situation worse. “It’s globalization 2.0.”
- And during this time: the cultural battle of Trumpism triumphs. In Latin America, Milei and Noboa are resisting management scratches, while they are gaining followers in the rest of the continent. In France, Bardella tops the polls as the first force (intention of 44%); in Germany, Alternative for Germany is already a few tenths ahead of the CDU and ten points ahead of the Social Democrats; In the United Kingdom, Ukip would be able to govern with 36% of the votes, in Spain, Vox comes out like a sniper.
- Preach and give wheat: Trump’s erratic policies aren’t sinking GDP, but inflation continues to rack up tenths. Tariffs raised the price of food products so much that the government had to apply tariff exemptions. The crusade against migrants makes work more expensive.
- Meloni, own profile: The ultra recipe is one thing and its consequences are another. It is appreciated by those who do not need to apply it. This is not only the case for Trump, but also for the Dutchman Wilders. Only Meloni, with much more pragmatic management, is capable of following.
What if economics could disconnect from politics? Why do countries grow with poor governance?
The pressure of populism, parliamentary fragmentation or fiscal imbalances are expected to have a negative impact on European countries in constant political crisis. France is not controlling its deficit and Spain is once again lacking budgets, but these are growing. Have you disconnected economics from politics? It’s usually bread for today and hunger for tomorrow.
- Spain, virtuous inertia: A minority government incapable of passing laws and budgets can boast the best growth in the advanced world. In 2026, the deficit and debt will be reduced again, thanks to record tax collection (+17% for personal income tax, +9% for VAT and +6.3% for companies). The inability to legislate is also the inability to legislate poorly and spend too much. Ergo, the deficit can go down to 2% and the debt below 100%.
- More consumption and more consumers: Over the last three years, Spain has welcomed 1.6 million foreigners, according to the INE. In 2025 alone, the positive migratory balance will be 543,000 people, which will compensate for a negative vegetative balance of 124,000. Growth is the population employed by productivity. And in Spain the first factor will be used a lot. Domestic consumption will be the driving force next year.
- Does it matter if politicians commit suicide? Well no. Spain needs structural reforms. For example, to solve the housing shortage in a time of population growth. The deficit of 700,000 housing units will widen. On the other hand, the cruising speed is not working with the increase in defense spending and, in 2027, the European funds that boosted GDP will be lost.
- In debt to the end: More debt means more financial spending and less growth in the future. Even if France’s growth exceeds expectations, an adjustment will have to be made. The same thing is happening with Spain, as MorningStar points out: a ratio of more than 100% of GDP is still very high. The worst part is that failing to govern undermines citizens’ trust in politics and the quality of institutions, which are the main engine of long-term growth.
- To learn more, here and here I leave you two interesting articles from Funcas on budgetary spending and migration and essential forecasts from BBVA.
This is how the rental boom is transforming family spending: transport, textiles… and leisure activities are falling
In the 90s, it was said that Spain should be a country of owners and become a country of tenants. Well, now we have it. And the experiment works well. The housing crisis and the enormous effort of owners are transforming consumption. For the worse, as this research shows Angel Martinez. Come on:
- More rented, less mortgaged: There are even more families who own property than those who live in rentals. However, the margin is narrowing. In 2013 there were 17 points difference, now seven (28.5% mortgaged versus 21.04 rented). Tenants spend 27% of their income on housing; the owners, the 18th.
- Rent so as not to save: The Bank of Spain sounds the alarm when families spend more than 30% of their income on housing. In the case of tenants, they are 29% and in the case of owners, 12%. The drop in interest rates has a lot to do with it.
- And the leftovers? : Those who live in rentals reduced their spending on transportation by 5.4%, on leisure by 3.6% and on clothing by 3.1%. It’s normal, they don’t have any margin. Mortgaged people reduce their expenses much less (-2.5% transport; 1.6% leisure)
Wallapop boss: “The new (Korean) owner is a force multiplier”
Wallapop is a Spanish phenomenon that has crossed borders. In fact, its capital was acquired by Naver, the Korean Google. Its CEO, Rob Cassedy, hopes that the new owner’s technological capacity will increase its performance: “We have only scratched the surface of our potential”
- Wallapop, in figures: The Spanish platform for selling second-hand items achieved a turnover of more than 100 million for the first time in 2024. It has lost 25, but in Spain, it claims to be already at the “break even point”. It claims 19 million users per month in three markets (Spain, Italy and Portugal).
- Korean invasion: Korean technology company Naver acquired 100% of the capital. The valuation (650 million) did not convince the 10% who contested it. “Our strategy will not change,” says Cassedy, who spent 12 years at Ebay. “AI and Naver are going to be multipliers of our business.”
- Blue ocean or just a lake: “In Spain, families believe they have 400 euros worth of things that they don’t use.” Cassidy assures that second-hand commerce represents 1% of GDP and 5% of the circular economy. “Our goal is to reach 50%.”
- To find out more, read the interview he did here Marcos Iriarte.
The crisis of the marketing director: fewer budgets, fewer levers and more objectives
They say we live in “interesting times”, this Chinese curse that is neither Chinese nor a curse… unless you are a marketing director. The new Capgemini report certifies that CMOs are at a crossroads: less budget, less power, more pressure and an AI that promises paradise but which, for the moment, distributes the IT budget.
- The figures of the cornered CMO: Marketing budgets fell to 5% of revenue and their influence on critical decisions fell from 70% to 55% in two years. And on top of that, technological control – including AI – is increasingly beyond their control.
- AI: enthusiasm, poor results. 55% of generative AI initiatives are funded by IT, not marketing. Data hurts: CMOs tout the potential of AI, but operate without real access to real-time data or budgetary control. Result: lots of PowerPoint, little performance. Marketing is being called upon to be repositioned as an engine of growth… but without essence.
- From SEO to technological existentialism. As Aída Sastre explains, it is no longer a question of “communicating”, but of reading the context, of anticipating, measuring and directing strategies for people and agents. AI forces us to rethink everything: from Google’s algorithm to the role of the CEO who, warns Fernando García, must orchestrate the data, legal, commercial and technological aspects. Marketing is no longer a department: it is a system. And who either rearms or stays away.
- To learn more about this report Angel Pena It’s very revealing.
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The new rich Spaniards beyond Amancio Ortega
292 people worldwide became billionaires in 2025. They are almost 9% more, reaching almost 3,800 worldwide with fortunes starting at 1,000 million and reaching infinity, such as the money amassed by Elon Musk, owner of Tesla or X, among others. In Spain there are 32 billionaires, with a total fortune of $0.2 trillion. Only Amancio Ortega has more than half and this year 8 Spaniards joined this list.
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