Why doesn’t the record wheat harvest increase dollar income?

The 2025/26 wheat campaign marks one historical record of production in Argentina, but this jump in volume will not lead to record foreign exchange incomedue to low international grain prices. This comes from a report by IERAL of the Mediterranean Foundationwhich warns of the growing gap between the quantity exported and the value generated.

Wheat quality report: The most important parameters after a record harvest

According to the study, wheat production would reach 26.8 million tonsthe biggest record since systematic statistics began, with growth of almost 50% compared to the previous yeardriven by exceptional yields and favorable weather conditions. “The 2025/26 season would be the one with the highest wheat production in the history of Argentina, significantly exceeding the average of the last decades,” emphasizes the IERAL report.

More tons but low international prices

Despite the sharp jump in production, foreign exchange earnings would not reach the same magnitude. The report estimates this to be approx 65% of production will be destined for exportwhich is approximately equivalent 17.5 million tonswith an average FOB price close to AU$s 200 per ton.

Therefore, The wheat complex would contribute about $3.5 billiona number higher than the previous campaign, but Really far from historical highs“Although the export volume would be one of the highest in history, the value generated does not reach record levels due to an international context of very low prices,” emphasizes IERAL.

Record wheat: “We have 10 million tons more than last year”

Adjusted for inflation, this would be wheat income around 26% below its all-time higheven with a higher export volume.

The report focuses on the international grain priceand lies in between lowest value of the 21st century. He Price Average Electricity is more than dAnd 30% below historical averagewhich limits the macroeconomic impact of the production balance. “Wheat faces a scenario of abundant global supply and low prices, significantly reducing foreign exchange earnings per tonne exported,” the document said.

This international context explains why the physical record is not reflected in a monetary record, even with an exceptional campaign for agriculture.

The challenge: maintaining investment and competitiveness

IERAL warns that productive performance reflects improvements in technology, handling and climate, but emphasizes this The sustainability of growth will depend on economic policy“To transform this productive balance into a sustainable process, it is crucial to promote a permanent reduction in export tariffs and a stable playing field for the sector,” the report says.

In a context in which agriculture is once again demonstrating its responsiveness, wheat confirms its potential as a quantity generator, although it makes this clear without cheap international prices and without structural changesthe impact on dollar income will continue to be limited.