In the analysis that combines Financial optimism together Strong defense of the financial pathEconomist Antonio Aracre I submitted a scenario Strong recovery For next year.
According to his reading, Argentina is heading towards the year 2026, which is characterized by “fairly high growth” He warned of low inflation, conditions that could be ensured if the government could successfully overcome short-term debt maturities and enhance country risk reduction.
“I imagine that in December, the government will be able to obtain financing in international markets to meet the January due date,” he said. Commitments worth $4,000 million Facing the closet.
According to the economic expert, this process was successful It is not fully discounted by the market (“It is not priced”), and therefore its application will lead to the collapse of the country’s risks, and therefore, Significant reduction in private sector interest rates.
The former official also focused on the impact of asset regulation on the real economy. Arakri expected that the “tax exemption” law would be the catalyst for this “The economy will transform in 2026” By facilitating the entry of billions of dollars allocated not only for construction and productive activities, but also for bank deposits.
He explained that this flow of capital, “It will garner a lot of credit“, repeating and deepening the positive dynamics already observed in the second half of 2024.
However, the economist warned of the risks of giving in to pressure to accelerate the reduction process Accumulation of reserves at all costs.
Araker He criticized the idea that the central bank must issue pesos to buy dollarsPointing out that this strategy has harmful side effects: it either generates inflation if the peso remains on the street, or it increases the quasi-fiscal deficit if BCRA is forced to absorb this surplus through paid bills.
In that line, – Distinguish between the roles of monetary institutionsStressing that “the one who must collect dollars to pay its obligations is the treasury, not the central bank,” given that the treasury was the one that issued the debt.
For Arakre, the healthy way to swell central coffers is not emissions, but… Capital account: That companies bring in their own dollars to finance themselves or that the Treasury takes on a surplus of debt in the market, as might happen if it took on more money than needed to “roll over” January.
The economist also strongly attacked the industrial and financial sectors that demand a correction of the exchange rate in favor of the accumulation of foreign currencies. “What those who ask the central bank to buy reserves generally want is to force it to intervene that raises the exchange rate,” Arakri said, adding frankly: “I do not see such a sanctimonious feeling in those who do this, I see them more with Lobbyist hat“.
Regarding the real economy and competitiveness, Araker denied criticism of closing industrial facilities that fail to compete with global prices, citing the case of Whirlpool. “The rule is that you must have as much production and as many plants as your current or future competitiveness.”He explained that subsidizing jobs in uncompetitive sectors implies that “fifty million Argentines live worse lives” by paying insurance premiums for durable goods such as household appliances or basic clothing.
Finally, though, he made it clear that it was not part of the formal structure of the Arakare government He admitted to recent meetings with Santiago Caputo and Minister Luis “Toto” Caputo. “I feel ideologically and emotionally connected to the government,” he admitted, though he validated his decision to remain in private activism.
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