With immigration and security at the center of attention, Chile will elect a new president this Sunday with Kast as the favorite.

• Context: Chile’s presidential elections take place against a backdrop of far-right growth, political fatigue and fear of violence
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At 59, the former MP placed immigration at the center of his campaign program from the start. In his official statements and during debates with Jara and the candidates competing in the first round on November 16, Kast has always made it clear that he intends to adopt a strict policy, using “all available resources, physical, technological, human and economic” to expel irregular immigrants and carry out mass expulsions in the country.

Kast also proposes a “border shield” which includes the construction of a wall on the border with Bolivia, surrounded by a trench and mobilizing 3,000 soldiers to contain the entrances.

In response to criticism, notably from Jara, of his proposals – which largely evoke the measures adopted by American President Donald Trump since his return to the White House – Kast however ruled out reproducing immigration operations in the manner of the raids carried out in the United States, specifying that “we are not talking about ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) raids”.

— We are not going to regularize or register any of them. They have 92 days (the time remaining until the new president takes office on March 11, 2026) to freely leave our country. We say the same thing to the fugitives: come back today, because if it costs us a penny to find you later, you will pay for it with more time in prison — Kast said during the last debate on Tuesday.

• Obstacle: Chile’s next president will face resistance from a divided Congress

As for security, although Chile maintains lower crime levels than other countries in the region and Chile continues to be among the safest in Latin America, according to the UN, the homicide rate has tripled in the last ten years, from 2.5 to 6.7 per 100,000 inhabitants. As a result, the feeling of insecurity increased significantly, which helped to strengthen Kast’s candidacy in the first round.

Although he came in second place in the first round, with 23.9% of the vote, Kast is making strides towards his election, comforted by the support of the entire right. In turn, Jara, who led the first round with 26.8%, sought in the second stage of the campaign to conquer the still undecided electorate or those who reject their opponent, exploiting the vulnerable points of the rival program.

Part of his strategy was to hold Kast accountable for proposals he views as harmful to human rights and public policy, such as those related to immigration, while tailoring his own rhetoric to a more rigid tone, aimed at voters concerned about these issues.

— I already said I was going to deport him, then ask him to leave and now deny him benefits. When we ask you how you are going to do what you propose and with what money, you never answer – declared Jara during the last debate, emphasizing his proposals on the migration issue.

Jara also sought to highlight the proposed economic cuts announced by his opponent – ​​US$6 billion (32 billion reais) in 18 months – in addition to pointing out that during his 16-year career in Congress, Kast “has not approved any significant legislation.”

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For Professor Fabian Duarte, from the Department of Economics at the University of Chile, the proposed cuts, in addition to being the most difficult, also constitute the greatest risk for a future government, because there is no way to reduce “so much and so quickly without causing serious damage.” The savings Kast highlighted, Duarte said, would force the government to cut funds for social programs or cause a sharp economic contraction.

— The proposal seems more like a bold political statement aimed at the conservative base than a detailed and viable plan — Duarte told GLOBO. — Ultimately, while the intention to restore fiscal order is understandable, the $6 billion proposal risks creating the opposite effect: prolonged political instability and economic uncertainty, likely to undermine market confidence rather than strengthen it.

In addition to these themes, the campaign in recent weeks has also been marked by clashes between candidates on other legislative and social issues already underway in the country. Kast, in a debate, said he would veto a euthanasia bill pending its signature, and said he would review legislation that gradually reduces working hours from 45 to 40 hours – approved in recent years, when Jara was labor minister in Gabriel Boric’s government.

He also said he supported granting pardons to state officials who violated human rights during the years of Augusto Pinochet’s dictatorship (1973-1990) – whom Kast has previously expressed a strong admirer of.

Even if Kast’s victory over Jara is practically taken for granted, for Professor Carlos Huneeus, of the Faculty of Law of the University of Chile, it is still unclear what he will actually do regarding the main themes of his program, “beyond announcements that will have no effect on specific policies.”

Furthermore, Huneeus believes that Kast will have great difficulty governing because he will not have a majority in the Senate and will only have a slight advantage in the House. In the vote, which took place alongside the first round in November, right-wing coalitions, including Kast’s, won 76 of the 155 seats in the Lower House. In the Senate, the right obtains 25 of the 50 seats.

— Kast prioritized consolidating the Republican Party as the main right-wing force, which is why he ran on a separate list from the Chile Vamos coalition, which resulted in a tie in the Senate — Huneeus told GLOBO. — If they had presented themselves on a common list, as proposed by Chile Vamos, he would have obtained the majority in the Senate and, therefore, much greater power than if he were elected.

There are also internal problems between the right-wing coalitions. Even though they supported Kast in the second round against Boric’s former minister, the future of the alliances remains uncertain.

— Then, there will be the formation of his Cabinet, with the choice of ministers and undersecretaries. Will Chile Vamos participate in government? Kast did not say anything about this, and the right-wing parties also did not declare whether they would be invited to the government, and it is also unclear how these parties would react, — concludes Huneeus.

If this projection comes true, Kast will become the country’s first far-right president since the end of Augusto Pinochet’s dictatorship in 1990, succeeding Boric’s left-wing government.