The Europe of 2026 will be less utopian than the continent built since 1945 with American aid. If, after World War II, the United States used the Marshall Plan and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization to finance a transatlantic alliance that allowed European countries to rebuild the continent – while the population benefited from a welfare state based on peaceful and environmental values – the rise of the second Trump administration and its aversion to the post-war world order revealed the urgency for Europeans to realign their future project to remain relevant. In 2026, European aspirations aspire to a more independent and, therefore, less idealistic Europe.
- Outlook 2026: In Trump’s vacuum, Beijing seeks to occupy the space created by the US president’s unpredictable decisions
- To understand: Thanks to new EU loan, Ukraine avoids budget crisis and strengthens its position in peace negotiations
Reimagining Europe without unconditional support from the United States involves a rethinking of the continent’s economic, defense, security and environmental priorities. The search for competitiveness and relevance in global geopolitics has imposed the need to reduce dependence on the US arms industry.
Trump was a shock that forced Europe to go through a period of decline, believes French economist and diplomat Laurence Tubiana, who believes that the next two years will be crucial for the continent to wake up and build its economic and strategic independence. She recalls that European and American actors joined forces to undo European environmental regulations and that they succeeded, thanks to the frequent alliance between the center-right and the far right in the European Parliament.
- Impacts of the war: Germany opens anti-drone center after raids on strategic locations in the country attributed to Russia
European institutions are advocating for Europe to strengthen its competitiveness in the world, which Emilie Tricarico, a specialist at the European Environmental Office, said is a direct response to changes in the global economy and difficulties in trade relations between the United States and the bloc.
— Europe is following the path of “we have to rearm and for that we are increasing defense spending at the expense of social welfare and environmental protection measures,” he says, explaining that the continent has not achieved most of its environmental goals for 2030.
Europe has chosen security and defense, and this repositioning is reflected in an 800 billion euro (5.2 trillion reais) plan entitled “Rearming Europe” (or “Preparing for 2030”), intended to encourage European countries to increase their military spending. Spending on artillery systems, missiles, air defense, munitions and drones will be excluded from the bloc’s budget cuts – and some countries have announced increasingly larger defense budgets in 2025. Over the next two years, France will increase the department’s resources by more than 6 billion euros (39 billion reais).
— Defense has a huge impact on the climate and the environment. The global defense sector is responsible for more than 5% of carbon emissions, and the industry is exempt from reporting its emissions — explains GLOBO Tricarico.
- Range of 3 thousand km: Ukraine produces missiles in secret factories and relies on military autonomy to confront Russia
In addition to capital spending, such as President Emmanuel Macron’s announcement of a new French aircraft carrier, starting in 2026 countries will adopt measures to recruit more personnel to their armed forces, including France, Germany and Poland.
The invasion of Ukraine rebalanced political and economic power in favor of the oil and gas sectors, reducing the room for maneuver for actors fighting for climate action, a trend that has increased with inflation and the energy security debate and is expected to intensify in 2026.
— This gave this sector (gas and oil) an incredible negotiating capacity, which they lost until the time of the invasion, — believes Tubiana.
In pursuit of competitiveness, the bloc will relax the law that requires companies to submit environmental impact reports – an exemption that will include data centers and artificial intelligence gigafactories, a sector that also appears as a priority in the French government’s decision to host the “Artificial Intelligence Action Summit” in 2025.
- In addition to oil: Russian ‘ghost fleet’ used for intelligence activities in Europe, US TV says
The deregulation measure, presented as simplifying the business environment and encouraging innovation, may also harm the environment. Tricarico says the issue is abandoning the rules of the 2020 European Green Deal.
— This favors capital at the expense of people and the planet.
In December, the EU also announced plans to abandon its goal of banning greenhouse gas-emitting cars by 2035.
— We are at an impasse. Nobody has a clear strategy. At the same time, Europeans are deeply divided on what is happening and on possible solutions, believes Jan Rovny, professor at Sciences Po. — On the one hand, we should increase competitiveness, have more free trade, get back in the game and have successful startups. The other camp says that the first is completely false, the solution is not in more liberalism, but in conclusion, in following the same path as Trump, namely more protectionism, reducing immigration and providing economic support and cultural protection to the populations. This polarization is increasing.
Certain sectors benefit from the new American nationalism. European universities are struggling to attract new students and researchers who previously chose American universities and have received more applications from foreign students, in what the Financial Times called a “Trump coup” that has benefited business schools “from Barcelona to Berlin.”
- To understand: After France, the German Parliament approves voluntary enlistment in the face of the Russian threat
As the United States moves away, others are trying to occupy space, such as China and Latin America. The European Commission’s insistence that the bloc conclude the agreement with Mercosur demonstrates that, at least in Brussels, the Latin American market is seen as a diversification option at a time of US tariff closures.
Earlier this month, President Emmanuel Macron visited China in a bid to rebalance the bloc’s trade. The French leader has pressured the country to reduce its trade surplus with Europe and threatened to impose tariffs. US protectionism towards Chinese goods has redirected them to Europe, a situation Macron called “life or death” for European industry. The president wants Chinese companies to establish themselves directly on the continent.
— Besides France, several countries wish to maintain good relations with China. Germany, Italy, Spain, even countries that have completely different political governments, like Hungary and Romania, because China is well established in Europe, says Tubiana, who raises the possibility of a rapprochement with Mercosur. —Where will we find new friends now that the alliance (with the United States) is dead? Will the European Union turn towards Latin America, which it has left aside for so long? There are also countries calling for more ties, such as South Korea, Indonesia and South Africa.
For Tricarico, a rapprochement with China could even benefit the environment.
— China controls 90% of critical minerals needed for the (energy) transition. It should be a key ally for Europe, which can seek other partners in the Global South, such as the BRICS countries.
About The Author
