With the country at full employment, Christmas dinner should arrive cheaper and more sophisticated on Brazilian tables

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The Brazilian Association of Supermarkets (Abras) predicts that family consumption during the holiday season will increase by 15%. If confirmed, it will be the biggest breakthrough in the entire series, which began in 2015, according to the entity’s vice president, Márcio Milan.

In addition to formal employment at a record level, which increases the disposable income of families with the injection of a thirteenth higher, the prices of typical dinner items increased by only 3.5% compared to last year, the lowest percentage since the series began in 2017, according to Abras.

— The fall of the dollar throughout the semester made negotiations more predictable. What we think is that they (supermarkets) have anticipated the purchase of typical Christmas dinner products, including wine and olive oil. The government removed the import tax, which caused the price of olive oil to drop by 18% on average, Milan says.

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The industry brought new innovations for the season, with the launch of beef and poultry kits and more versions of panettone, from 80 grams, for gifts, up to formats above 750 grams, following the diversification of family sizes.

BRF, owner of the Sadia and Perdigão brands, has renewed 10 to 15% of its Christmas portfolio and is investing both in higher value-added products, such as semi-boneless chester stuffed with farofa — launched to mark the product’s 45th anniversary — and in more practical and less expensive options. One of the new additions is chester breading, designed to be an air fryer snack for get-togethers or “before dinner.”

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The tendency of Brazilians to barbecue on this date also motivated the expansion of the “Na Brasa” chester range, which won two cups. On the dessert side, the Miss Daisy range now offers a new flavor of Torta Brigatone, based on mousse and chocolate panettone. Thanks to the better behavior of the dollar, the company says it has managed to maintain the pace of innovation without too much input pressure.

— We are optimistic for Christmas — says Luiz Franco, director of marketing and innovation at MBRF.

Bauducco is banking on premium products, mini versions and even new flavors linked to the demand for “affordable treats” that it has observed among customers. To this end, it launched the new pistachio-flavored Chocottone and the “collaboration” with Fini, with the flavors Dendura, 450 grams, and Beijos, 80 grams.

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The premium range of chocolate panettone will have two additional flavors: caramel macchiato and cherry. The company has strengthened its gift range with new 750 gram cans and collectible mini cans.

The company says it has seen the cost of certain ingredients increase, but purchasing planning and renegotiation with suppliers have reduced the impacts, explains André Britto, marketing director:

— We have seen an early movement in orders from retailers. We believe in a democratic wallet, starting with a disbursement of around R$5, up to broader options, for families, or more premium gifts.

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In Cadeg, Rio’s traditional municipal market, the Empório Tuta do Bacalhau store is already making a profit from selling Christmas baskets, particularly to businesses, in a format it only offered last year. The store has entered into a partnership with a distributor who already delivers the assembled kits. Prices range from R$73.90 to R$228 and include items such as panettone, nougat, cakes, mixed dried fruit and sparkling wine.

The hot job market has boosted sales as companies try to retain workers. For the store manager, Carlos Babo, the situation influences:

— Companies value their employees more.

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The store began contacting corporate clients in mid-November and placed orders for 100 to 200 baskets per sale, the manager said. A large part of the stock of Christmas items has already been built up. Cod, imported from Norway, saw an adjustment of between 7 and 10%, but nothing that the manager considers exaggerated. Babo estimates that consumption is hotter this year:

— I see that people are buying more. The economy has improved.

Supermercados Zona Sul made its first purchases of panettone in May, and by September the mixture was already available in stores. Order volume increased by 79% compared to last year.

— With more controlled inflation, the tendency to consume is stronger. Even with the increase in prices, the percentage is lower than in 2024 — says Ricardo Bonuccelli, sales and import manager of the chain.

Between November and early December, the chain’s sales of imported products increased by 12.7%. According to Bonuccelli, dollar weakness paves the way for portfolio expansion:

— The fall in the exchange rate allows us to invest more, particularly in new products. Categories such as cookies, wine, candy and gourmet benefit the most.

At Planeta Sonho, a traditional delicatessen in the southern zone of Rio, the Christmas baskets, which range from R$119 to R$2,600 and are aimed at different audiences, have the same prices as last year. According to owner Marcelo Maleh, the falling dollar has helped contain costs:

— This allowed us to maintain value without changing quality.

In the case of olive oil, a central element both on the table and in the preparation of dinner, the stability of the euro at a high level has prevented any relief in the exchange rate. The improvement in prices is due to the more favorable international harvest and the government’s decision to eliminate the import tax (II) on olive oils and other essential foods in March.

As a result, the product has returned to the price range of R$35 for a 500 ml bottle in many points of sale, explains Yasmin Roiter, marketing manager at Gallo Brasil.

With demand recovering after months of peaks, the company has increased planned volume for the season and is betting that the premium line, launched in September, will gain traction during the holiday season. Due to its sophistication and sensory proposition, the version has even been a gift option, explains manager Gallo:

— We have noticed a consumer more willing to try premium olive oils on special occasions, while still looking for versatile, cost-effective products for everyday life.

Moacir Sbardelotto, regional director of Assaí, says the chain noticed that customers were anticipating part of their Christmas shopping on Black Friday to take advantage of promotional prices.

— What we’ve seen since November is a consumer looking for the best value for money: they don’t stop celebrating, but they carefully look at the price of each item. Dinner tends to be complete, but balanced. In a high interest rate scenario, we see premium brands adding more premium choices to the assortment.

• This is the average percentage increase for typical Christmas dinner products this year, according to Abras, also the lowest increase in the supermarket association’s historic series.

• This is the increase expected by the Brazilian Association of Supermarkets (Abras) for family consumption during the end-of-year holidays. If confirmed, it will be the largest in Abras’ historic series, which began in 2015.

• This was the renewal of the BRF portfolio, which this year produces the Sadia and Perdigão brands, with semi-boneless chester stuffed with farofa and chester breading to be made in the airfryer.