Regardless of Donald Trump’s so far fruitless efforts to end the war in Ukraine, the European Union took two decisions on Wednesday (3) to try to pressure Russia to surrender in negotiations that could generate important internal divisions in the continental bloc.
The most important was to present a plan to obtain the equivalent of 1.3 trillion Brazilian riyals from Moscow’s frozen reserves in Europe as guarantee for a loan to finance both the government and the armed forces in Kiev in 2026 and 2027.
Moreover, the European Commission, the executive body of the European Union, decided to ban the purchase of Russian natural gas by the bloc’s 27 countries until 2027.
As expected, the Kremlin protested in both cases. Putin has already classified the seizure of assets frozen by Western sanctions due to the war, which began shortly after the 2022 invasion, as theft.
His spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said on Wednesday that the European economy was “doomed to failure” if it stopped receiving Russian gas.
Both measures were subject to internal criticism by the bloc, especially the confiscation of frozen assets. The chancellery of Belgium, a country with about R$1.2 trillion of Moscow’s resources, said the initiative was illegal and could expose the country to action in international courts.
On Tuesday, the British Financial Times newspaper published a report stating that the idea of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen was also considered illegal in an analysis by the European Central Bank.
Moreover, two of the EU governments closest to Putin, Hungary and Slovakia, have said they are against kidnapping. Here the confrontation promises to be greater, as von der Leyen has invoked the Continental Emergency Clause to prevent these opponents from exercising a veto over the measure.
This is happening through a maneuver that analysts consider legally risky, saying that the European Union is facing a state of emergency and that any lifting of sanctions would put the continent’s economy at risk because it would force Kiev’s creditor countries to use their resources to finance the loan, which is not repayable.
As a result, mandatory approval by EU bodies and member state parliaments can be circumvented in practice.
The problem is that this, in a way, perpetuates the penalty and removes the issue of frozen assets as a negotiation item. In the first version of the agreement presented by Trump two weeks ago, his third attempt to force an end to the conflict, it was expected that a third of Russia’s offshore reserves would be used in the Ukraine Reconstruction Fund.
“The message to Russia is that the reparations loan will increase the cost of the war, which brings the Russians to the negotiating table,” von der Leyen said. She denied that there was a legal danger to the bloc or the countries.
The second gas measure received criticism from Budapest and Bratislava. Both governments depend on Russian product and oil, and have already announced that they will object to the proposal.
Before the war, about 45% of the gas consumed in the European Union came from the Russians. In October, this indicator fell to 12%, and France, Hungary, Slovakia and Belgium remain large consumers of this commodity.
The attempt at heroism comes at a time when Trump’s efforts are reaching a paradoxical peak, as he has shown no progress.
A delegation consisting of negotiator Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner spent five hours with Putin and his advisors, and left the Kremlin in the early hours of Wednesday. No new agreement was reached, according to the Kremlin.
“The president agreed with some points and found others unacceptable, but he did not reject the plan,” Peskov said.
The spokesman says it was agreed to avoid “megaphone diplomacy”, but to continue working to resolve differences, despite the hardening stance of Putin, who said the previous day that he was ready for war with Europe. The Russian is experiencing a moment of progress on the battlefield that also affects his position.
Witkov spoke with Ukrainian officials on Wednesday, and a group from Kiev will meet with European allies in Brussels to discuss the issue.