Zelensky’s innocent summit

There was also no major progress in the negotiations, although both sides agreed to continue working on this issue. It is likely that the optimism expressed by the North American president was the result, on the one hand, of his concern to maintain the hope of a future agreement. And, on the other hand, deduce from the meeting a softening of Zelensky’s positions. He left the April Fool’s meeting with a puppet on his back.

It is difficult to immediately know the results of a meeting at the highest level, which combines in one bag a new security framework in Europe, territorial transfers and the corresponding economic and financial aspects. We can deduce from this that the two most important obstacles remain the security guarantees offered to Ukraine – we are talking about a period of 15 to 50 years – and the territorial question.

The greatest difficulty of the first lies in Moscow’s categorical refusal to accept the deployment of NATO troops on Ukrainian territory. The second takes the form of territorial concessions, since Putin will hardly give up spaces conquered by force of arms. A possible territorial agreement could succeed exchange territories which remains to be occupied by Russia in the Donbass and the “oblasts” of Zaporizhia and Kherson, to return to Ukraine those conquered by Russian troops in the Ukrainian “oblasts” of Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv.

With the exclusion of the temporary ceasefire sought by Zelensky and sponsored by most European countries, the fighting has not subsided. In the air, Russian missile and artillery drone launches against Ukrainian energy infrastructure continue, and even intensify, against targets of the military-industrial complex in the kyiv region.

Ukrainian troops are responding by attacking Russian oil refineries, such as the recent launch of Storm Shadow cruise missiles against a refinery in Novoshakhtinsk (Rostov Oblast). Also with self-made long-range combat drones against oil fields in the Russian port of Temryuk (Krasnodar oblast), as well as against a gas processing plant in Orenburg, located 1,300 kilometers from the Ukrainian border.

Beyond the testimonial value of Ukrainian resilience, such actions do not seem very successful since the attack vectors are, for the most part, shot down by Russian anti-aircraft defense.

On the ground, Russian troops retain the initiative. In the Zaporizhzhia “oblast”, they are engaged in grueling urban combat inside Guliaipole. Similarly, in the Orejov region, they advance towards Novoandriivka, then attack Orejov to the west of that town in combination with another effort east from Mala Tokmachka towards the T0815 highway. The potential fall of Orezhov would facilitate the subsequent occupation of the rest of the Zaporizhia “oblast”, the objectives of which would be specified in three: Zaporizhia, capital of the “oblast”; Orezhov; and Guliaipole.

In Donetsk Oblast, Russian troops have reached Andriivka and continue to fight against the Kostiantinivska stronghold while trying to advance from the south of the city, to reach the H20 highway. As they also press toward the east of the bastion, they will likely attempt to repeat the encirclement maneuver already used at other Ukrainian strongpoints. Furthermore, after the capture of Siversk, Russian troops from Dibrova headed towards Raihodorok to threaten the bastion of Sloviansk. So, from the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk-Kostiantinivska-Bajmut trapezium, which after the invasion appeared as the last holding zone of the Russian offensive, only Kramatorsk is not directly connected with the battlefield.

In Kupiansk (Kharkov oblast), the third battle took place for a city that had fallen into the hands of Russian troops for the first time. It was then partially recovered by the Ukrainians. And now the Russians are trying to regain control of the entire city. Zelensky, after this innocent summit, seems more and more cornered, politically and militarily.