Most banks expect a slowdown in lending in 2026, while default rates are expected to show slight growth, according to the Febraban (Brazilian Banks Federation) Economic and Banking Expectations Survey, published this Thursday (1).
Institutions forecast that the total credit portfolio grew by 9.2% last year. For 2026, an increase of 8.2% is expected.
The survey, which questioned 20 banks between December 17 and 19, however represents a slight improvement in projections compared to the previous edition, in November, which pointed to an increase of 8.9% for 2025 and 7.9% for 2026.
According to Febraban, the improvement is explained by the expansion of credit intended for legal entities, supported by government programs. Another factor mentioned is the resilience of housing credit, which offset the lower dynamism of rural credit.
“The increase in the credit balance projections for 2026 is in line with recent publications, which show that the year 2025 was marked by a very gradual moderation of the credit market, which remained with reasonably robust growth, even with the high level of the Selic rate,” says Rubens Sardenberg, director of economics, prudential regulation and risks at Febraban.
The default rate, for its part, remains a point of attention. The projection for 2025 remained at 5.1%, while for 2026 it increased to 5.2% (from 5.1%).
The survey also showed that the majority of banks (70%) envisage the start of the Selic decline cycle only in March, with a rate reduction of 0.50 percentage points.
The survey also shows that, for 50% of participants, inflation in 2026 is expected to be above B.C.’s target, due to fiscal and credit stimulus. On the other hand, 35% forecast inflation below the consensus.
“The main question now seems to be how quickly Copom will be able to reduce interest rates throughout the year. For now, expectations remain conservative and point to a moderate reduction trajectory,” says Sardenberg.
Compared to GDP (Gross Domestic Product), the survey revealed an improvement in sentiment. The percentage of those projecting growth of 1.8% in 2026, as highlighted by the Focus Bulletin, increased from 36.4% to 55%. At the same time, those expecting stronger activity fell from 18.2% to 15%.
As for the budgetary target, no participant expects the government to fail to achieve it in 2026, but 80% believe that additional measures will be necessary to achieve this. Furthermore, 45% expect measures on the spending side, such as blockages and contingencies and removing spending from the budget framework.
About The Author
