In recent weeks, several actions by the Brazilian government have highlighted its main fears regarding escalating tensions between the United States and Venezuela. The telephone call from President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to his counterpart Nicolás Maduro, at the beginning of December, was motivated exclusively, official sources confirmed to the chronicle, “by the need to talk about a possible invasion or attack against the neighboring country”. It was the only subject discussed between the heads of state.
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The Brazilian government is deeply concerned about the impact that a possible US attack on Venezuelan territory could have on the neighboring country’s borders with Brazil and Colombia. “We have a potential crisis on our borders,” said another source. This potential crisis has placed the Palácio do Planalto and Itamaraty, especially with the intensive surveillance of the Brazilian Embassy in Caracas, on permanent alert.
The border between Brazil and Venezuela stretches for just over 2,000 kilometers, divided between the states of Roraima (the main crossing is between Pacaraima and Santa Elena de Uairén) and Amazonas. Since the start of Venezuela’s migration crisis in 2013, the year Maduro was first elected president – amid accusations of fraud from the opposition – the Venezuelan Diaspora Observatory estimates that 9.1 million people have left the country. According to the United Nations Refugee Agency, UNHCR, Venezuela today has the largest number of refugees in the world (6.3 million), without having experienced war, surpassing countries like Syria.
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Data varies, but estimates indicate that more than 500,000 Venezuelans currently live in Brazil, a number that could increase significantly in the event of war in the neighboring country. This possible scenario generates enormous fear within the Lula government and the armed forces, which operate within the framework of the so-called Acolhida operation, in Roraima. The initiative, which benefits from the collaboration of NGOs and international humanitarian aid agencies, suffered a severe reduction in its resources with the return of Donald Trump to the White House.
The alleged first US military attack on Venezuelan territory, recently mentioned by Trump and confirmed by sources in Washington to the New York Times and the CNN television channel, was considered “confusing” by official Brazilian sources. “There are no images, it’s all very strange,” said one of the sources consulted. The Brazilian government is seeking information from its contacts in Caracas, the Venezuelan embassy in Brasilia and various sources. You don’t have the access you had at other times.
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In a context of enormous uncertainties, the Brazilian government fears the prospect of regional destabilization. After the first and only phone call between Lula and Maduro in 2025, there was no further contact between them. Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira maintains a cordial dialogue with his Venezuelan colleague Yvan Gil, and Ambassador Glivânia Maria de Oliveira has relatively frequent contacts with members of the Venezuelan Foreign Ministry.
In 2026, relations with Venezuela will depend to a large extent on the evolution of the conflict between the country and the United States. Unlike countries like Argentina, Ecuador, Panama and Paraguay, which are making harsh statements against Venezuela, the Lula government is acting cautiously so as, in the words of an official source, “not to justify an American attack.” The fear of the consequences in Brazil is great.
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