The launch of the pre-candidacy of Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) for president has intensified debates within the PT on the best strategy to confront Governor Tarcísio de Freitas of São Paulo, who is closer to running for office given the choice made by former President Jair Bolsonaro in favor of his son. The desire to reissue Broad Front 2022 next year, now in a version in São Paulo, with vice-president Geraldo Alckmin and ministers Fernando Haddad (Finance) and Simone Tebet (Planning), has also relaunched discussions on Lula’s vice-presidential candidate.
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The PT considers the election against Tarcísio difficult to win. The party’s real objective is to maintain a voting level similar to that reached in 2022, when the governor won with 55.27% of the vote, compared to 44.73% for Haddad. In the last election, Lula received 4.3 million more votes in the state than in 2018, when Haddad ran for president. Part of the presidential environment attributes the PT member’s narrow electoral victory against Bolsonaro to his performance in São Paulo. For this group, it is necessary to work so that Tarcísio does not approach a range close to 60% of the votes, pulling the vote of the Bolsonarista candidate for president in the largest electoral college in the country.
It is from this panorama that the scenarios were discussed. Lula’s aides say Haddad and Alckmin are in the president’s mind as competitive options to take on Tarcísio. However, the general manager will have to face different obstacles to make one or the other option viable. Contacted, the Minister of Finance and his deputy made no comment.
Haddad has already told Lula and repeated to PT members that he will not run in 2026, after facing three elections at the PT’s worst time, and being defeated in each of them (2016, 2018 and 2022). The Minister of Finance prefers to contribute to Lula’s government program during a possible next mandate. His name is also mentioned as possible president of the Civil House, in the event of Lula’s re-election.
— Haddad has the age of majority and his biography to decide what he wants to do — Lula said in December.
Alckmin, on the other hand, is expected to be removed as vice president to face a conflict in which he could be defeated in the state he has governed four times. A possible departure would create a gap in the ticket due to uncertainties regarding the full support of the center’s acronyms. Lula and PT president Edinho Silva reiterated that Alckmin will be “whatever he wants” in the elections, whether he is vice president or in another mission.
PT members with access to Lula say the president will not impose one option or another, but will act to persuade. They also emphasize that the proximity of the elections will work in favor of Lula’s projects. A majority wing of the PT defends Haddad as the preferred name of the São Paulo government, notably by arguing that Alckmin should be kept in the position he already holds. For this group, it makes sense to change the composition in the name of further expansion of the electoral alliance, with parties like the MDB and the PSD. For now, there is no horizon for full support from these parties, and the PT is striving for neutrality and specific support from the states.
This group argues that the PT should have a name specific to Bandeirantes that would attract votes for Lula. Some also believe that the local executive candidate is the “campaign boss” in the state, not the Senate candidate.
Another wing of the party, however, considers Alckmin as a stronger candidate against Tarcísio, with a greater capacity to capture votes for Lula, including in the Bolsonarista electorate, and to obtain better results in small towns. Alckmin is close to several mayors from the interior of São Paulo and has led the vice-presidency and the Ministry of Industry and Commerce without distancing himself from the heads of municipal executives, with the habit of receiving them in Brasilia.
In this drawing, Haddad is placed in the Senate. PT supporters claim that this configuration will more easily convince the outgoing president to run for a majority position, because it is a less “bloody” campaign and because of the PT’s tradition of electing senators in São Paulo.
Another important member of the São Paulo board is Simone Tebet, listed in the storylines as a candidate for senator or vice governor. In the list, it would be the most central name and capable of reaching voters who do not traditionally vote for the PT. If previously she insisted on changing her electoral domicile from Mato Grosso do Sul, a state where she was once vice-governor and elected senator, Tebet now admits to having transferred it to São Paulo.
According to her interlocutors, the minister was enthusiastic after the show of support she received at a dinner organized by the Grupo Prerrogativas, in São Paulo. Contacted, Tebet did not respond.
The minister has already informed her political group that she will be with Lula in 2026 and that she will accept the challenge he proposes. PT supporters close to the president say Tebet is enthusiastic about running in São Paulo and would welcome the Senate. PT members describe Tebet as a minister in tune with Lula and as a viable candidate to fill the post of vice president, should Alckmin run for another vacant post.
Tebet’s plans, however, face obstacles at the top of the MDB. Since 2022, the party has supported Tarcísio in São Paulo. And MDB State Chairman Rodrigo Arena is organizing support for the governor’s re-election. In practice, emedebistas see no chance of Tebet running for the São Paulo Senate for the party with Lula’s support. Thus, the minister’s allies even admit the possibility of a change of party.
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