The capture of Nicolás Maduro by the United States government and the announcement of Donald Trump that he will take command of Venezuela until there is a “safe transition” between Chavismo and a democratic regime will have their first impact on the movement of the markets this Monday.
Analysts expect a wheel in which Stocks, bonds and commodity prices move with global volatility and a recovery in Venezuelan government securities, in default since 2017.
On Friday, before the capture of Nicolás Maduro and the announced intervention in the Caribbean country, global financial assets had started the year positively. Financial markets closed that day mostly positive and without surprises, on a day before a weekend marked by the sluggishness of the year-end rally and a buoyant start to 2026.
Wall Street closed higher, the dollar remained firm against major currencies and the Oil posted moderate gainss, without including any relevant geopolitical premium. Now investors must recalibrate risk, energy and safe havens.
Analysts agree that the situation in Venezuela is still not clearly defined and that the market will adjust prices as the outlook becomes clearer. The increase in geopolitical risk on a global scale and the Fear of a reaction from China or Russia These Trump actions may lead to greater volatility in major Wall Street indices. While theStocks in the technology or consumer sectors could suffer corrections due to greater risk aversion among investorsOther sectors such as energy or defense could benefit from this event.
“It is difficult to interpret how the short-term market might react. There is a lot of uncertainty and news all the timee,” warned Diego Martinez Burzaco, CEO of Inviú. “My base case is Uncertainty with a positive short bias for oil prices and assets in the region” he added.
For his part, Fernando Marull, economist at FMy Asociados, noted: “It is not clear what the market situation will be.either. The end of the Maduro dictatorship suggests that there will be greater supply of crude oil, so the impact is likely to be negative on the price. However“If the market expects global geopolitical risk to increase in the near term, that could drive the price higher.”
Santiago Palma Cané revealed that the impact of increased crude oil supply will not be visible in the short term: “Venezuela is not a relevant producer on the market today And if oil production in Venezuela were to start increasing to the potential levels that it has or had at another time, it would take a long time and many aspects, both political and economic, would also have to be defined.”
In this sense, Gustavo Neffa. by Research For Traders. Financial support: “Oil prices could rise initially due to a larger geopolitical risk premium, but especially due to the possible disruption to low oil production and exports.”N. However, after possible future investments, it is likely to decrease due to the larger supply. “Bitcoin appreciates with Venezuela on larger inflows into other security currencies.” The most popular cryptocurrency surpassed $91,000 on Sunday, registering a gain of more than 5% in the past few days.
Analysts do not rule out that investors are looking safer assets given the increased risk. This movement known as Escape to quality (Escape to quality) can Impact on the price of gold, which established itself as a haven par excellence in 2025, ending with an annual increase of 65%. It can also strengthen the price of the dollar worldwide and US bonds.
At the regional level it is expected that a relative recovery in Venezuelan bonds which could rise to 60 cents on the dollar from the 22 cents on the dollar they were trading at through Friday. “In the last few weeks These instruments were duplicatedor,” said Diego Albuja, market analyst at ATFX LATAM.
“The universe of defaulted Venezuelan debt is round the nominal value is 60,000 million US dollarsa value that increases significantly when accrued interest, arbitration awards and bilateral debts are taken into account. For years, these bonds were considered almost uncollectible; However, the recent political shift and expectations of eventual institutional normalization have changed market perception,” he added.
Analysts are divided when it comes to assessing the impact of these global movements on Argentine assets. On the one hand, Palma Cané recorded a positive balance with a medium-term outlook. “If the situation in Venezuela normalizes, it can be positive for the region because we see the support of the United States, which was the first for our country,” he said. On the other hand, Marull pointed out that a recovery of the Venezuelan economy would be accompanied by greater global openness “It can compete with Argentina and lose a little bit of its luster.”
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