The expression “We’re bad, but we’re fine“has become a symbol of the political and communicative climate of the 1990s, linked to the idea of being with the promise of future benefits, and remains an obligatory reference in the analysis of the political speech Argentinian.
But it isn’t anecdotal expressionbut rather has deep foundations in the way expectations are managed. If the Governments Their priority is to solve people’s problems. Even if they don’t achieve this, they must at least make people feel that this solution is on the way. Governing also means managing expectations.
But it is quite different to have to do it when you absolutely have to create pain in order to find solutions than when you can produce small reliefs in the search. solve the problems. In the first case, you have to justify the pain (what I’m going to do will hurt you, but just to make you feel better later); In the second, the small reliefs form the bridge to reach the Goal desired.
When Milei When he began his treatment, in the first case he had to create initial pain to create one Economic order which could then bring relief. It was necessary to make an adjustment (fiscal and relative prices) that would produce suffering and then strive to achieve that order macroeconomic Achievements lead to growth (relief).
The management of expectations carried out by Milei was as stated in the manual: Mapping the Responsibility of pain to the previous administration (the inheritance) and promise that after initial pain the desired relief and well-being would occur.
In 2024 the Economic dynamics accompanied this narrative strategy: suffering occurred in the first semester (when there was a greater willingness to endure pain) and relief was felt in the second semester economic recovery. But in 2025, the narrative strategy didn’t have that support. The low inflationEconomic activity, consumption and the purchasing power of salaries stagnated and did not provide the necessary relief to convince that the chosen path is the right one.
This became a problem for expectation management in this cycle because, as authors such as Daniel Kahneman and Amos TverskyPeople evaluate change relatively and sensitivity to change decreases.
If the change becomes more and more imperceptible, that’s natural decreasing sensitivity increases the difficulty of perceiving changes. When you get used to the decline in inflation (which is still high), you realize how useful the decline in inflation is inflation As a symptom of change, it loses strength.
This year the government lost public perception Recognition for the decline in inflation, an achievement that, strictly speaking, corresponds not to this year but to the previous year. In fact, the year will end with inflation accelerating in the second half, diluting this political asset. What’s more, it wasn’t a year Economic growth real: A large part of the overall performance reacts to statistical carryover. In addition, the economy was on the verge of a technical recession this year, which could only be averted by the statistical effect of the deep recession growth of financial intermediation.
For all these factors is the Expectation management from the government was a bigger challenge this year. The narrative that pain was followed by relief does not seem to have been clearly accessible to the public. The activity does not grow, it does not arise employment and income cannot reach the purchasing power of 2023 again. It was therefore necessary to increase purchasing power, especially in the run-up to the elections Civil service appeal again to heredity as a narrative axis.
If you just look at 2023, this is what 2025 looks like and can give the impression of an economic recovery trajectory. And although reality macroeconomic can differ very positively from what it was back then, but these aspects always seem to be far from the general public perception or the sensitivity from the citizen’s pocket.
But this kind of slowing of the benefits that came from it Pain shock The initialization is not enough to create a widespread feeling that this attempt at change has resulted in it Milei Fail. In fact, one could say that this threat to the government is still far away as the majority of people feel that this is the case change is still ongoing and there is not yet enough evidence to determine whether it has failed.
This is very useful in maintaining the narrative of change that the government wants to continue to support. Something paradoxically encouraged by the lack of renewal in Peronism. While Cristina KirchnerSergio Massa and the vast majority of leaders linked to the government of Alberto Fernández want to continue to be protagonists in the fight against Milei Civil service is paradoxically preferred to maintain its narrative of change.
While the Peronism Do not offer society a gesture that expresses self-criticism, such as the repression of all the protagonists of the associated leaders of Peronism past failuresit will be more difficult for Peronism to reconcile with the people. Something that can only happen if Milei fails enough, something that today looks like it will fail so badly that it becomes unlikely to happen.
If the perceived bad past remains in the picture and encourages comparison with this present, the present will have the advantage of indicating and conveying that it is in a state Away of continuous improvement. This is not irrelevant to this cycle, because if Milei can’t make people feel good, she must at least make them feel better. And compared to 2023, this modest 2025 looks better.
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