From this Friday the new replacement belt schemewhich adjusts the floor and ceiling of the official dollar based on past inflation. The change aims to expand the variable margin and gain the flexibility to accumulate reserves without losing control of the exchange rate, in a context characterized by a challenging financial calendar for 2026.
What changes in the exchange rate system from January 2026?
Since January 2, the Central Bank (BCRA) is changing the way it updates the ranges within which the official dollar fluctuations are updated. From now on, the lower and upper limits of the exchange rate corridor will be automatically adjusted to past inflation.
How are dollar bands updated?
The bands are adjusted daily with a two-month lag based on the latest inflation data reported by Indec. In this way, they stop advancing at a fixed pace and start moving according to price trends.
What are the band values in January?
According to the BCRA’s official rate, in January the floor of the band will gradually decrease from $914.78 to around $894, while the ceiling will rise from $1,529 to around $1,563. This implies a gradual expansion of the exchange corridor.
Is this a change in the exchange rate regime?
No. Private analysts agree that this is not a regime change, but rather an adjustment within the current system to give it more flexibility and extend the useful life of the stock market anchor in the context of tight reserves.
What is the main aim of this new regulation?
The central objective is to accumulate reserves without losing control of the exchange rate, which, along with fiscal balance, remains one of the main anchors of the inflation process.
Why is building reserves key?
Because the lack of dollars remains the main condition of the economic program. The sustainability of the system will depend on the ability to generate a supply of foreign exchange throughout the year.
Where could these dollars come from?
According to analysts, the inflow of foreign currencies could result from debt placements, foreign direct investments, financial flows and greater demand for money, allowing the BCRA to buy dollars without creating inflationary pressures.
What effects can the new regulation have on the financial market?
The change changes the financial incentives. Under the previous system, instruments denominated in pesos with a fixed exchange rate had an implicit hedge against exchange rate volatility. Investors could now demand higher interest rates, especially if no capital is flowing in.
Can it affect inflation?
Analysts generally rule out a direct impact on prices. However, they warn that the exchange rate remains the main nominal anchor and that its credibility is fragile as long as reserves remain tight.
What position will the BCRA take on inflation?
The central bank assured that it will maintain a contractionary monetary policy in 2026 as long as local inflation exceeds international inflation, and that monetary policy will be calibrated according to the evolution of prices, activity and money demand.
What influence does the agreement with the IMF have on this scheme?
The IMF already made the reserve creation target more flexible in the last review, but the government will seek to redefine the targets in February. Exchange rate dynamics and the credibility of the band system will be the focus of these negotiations.
What financial challenges does the government face in the short term?
In January, $4.2 billion will be due from private bondholders. In addition, the BCRA is expected to raise up to $12 billion to achieve the goals agreed with the IMF. This number could be increased if a swap with the United States is activated.
Will there be a complete exemption of the exchange rate?
Complete liberalization of the foreign exchange market is not on the agenda for the time being. The government is applying greater flexibility to advances in exchange rate equilibrium and greater Treasury access to international markets.
What does the sustainability of the new system depend on?
The success of the plan will depend on the economy’s ability to generate enough foreign exchange to maintain exchange rate stability and spur reserve accumulation.
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