Protests sparked by soaring inflation and currency devaluation reveal political discontent. For analysts, the current problems endanger the government of the ayatollahs. For days, a wave of protests has been sweeping across Iran, a country plunged into a deep economic crisis marked by an unprecedented drop in the value of the local currency, the rial, galloping inflation and the rise in the cost of living.
This Thursday (01/01), at least six people died in clashes between security forces and demonstrators.
The Islamic Republic has suffered for years from uncontrolled inflation of basic commodities and chronic devaluation of its currency. In December, prices increased by an average of 52% compared to the previous year, according to the Central Statistics Department.
Clashes were reported this Thursday in medium-sized towns with several tens of thousands of inhabitants. In Lordegan (southwest), two civilians were killed, reported the Fars news agency, which also reported clashes and acts of vandalism in the town, located 650 kilometers from Tehran.
And in Azna, a town in the western province of Lorestan, three more people died in clashes between security forces and protesters, Fars reported. A member of the security forces was also killed during clashes in Kuhasht, also in the west of the country.
But the protests, which began last Sunday with a strike by Tehran traders and grew stronger with the participation of students, go beyond the country’s economic problems.
Experts say the protests – the biggest challenge to Islamic rule since the 2022 “Women, Life, Freedom” movement – reflect widespread and growing political discontent and anger against the government.
“Trust in government is decreasing”
Videos circulating on social media show Iranian police using tear gas and rubber bullets against protesters.
In turn, protesters are directing their anger at the country’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, and the Islamic republic’s foreign policy, with images on social media showing people chanting slogans such as “Death to the dictator” and “Neither Gaza nor Lebanon, my life for Iran.”
Kasra Qaredaghi, a doctoral student in political science at the University of Central Florida in the United States, said protests often start with economic concerns, which evolve into broader political demands.
“In this context, when the cost of living increases but income and job security do not keep pace, complaints about rising prices quickly turn into discontent,” Qaredaghi told DW. “This economic crisis is unfolding against a backdrop of declining public confidence in the government’s ability to control inflation and create stability,” he added.
Iran’s government has been accused of widespread corruption, while protesters also say authorities are prioritizing support for allied groups abroad – such as Palestinian militants Hamas and the Lebanese group Hezbollah – over domestic well-being, and suppressing freedoms.
What is driving the protests?
An economic crisis has caused Iran’s currency, the rial, to plummet to a historic low of 1.4 million riyals to the U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, inflation has soared to over 42%, pushing up prices of essential goods. The cost of basic food can easily eat up an entire month’s salary.
Adnan Hassanpour, a journalist, political activist and former Iranian-Kurdish prisoner living in Paris, explained that difficult economic conditions and increasing pressure on people’s livelihoods were the main triggers for the protests. “This accumulation of problems, combined with stagflation, has made life extremely difficult for people and triggered the current wave of protests,” Hassanpour said.
Qaredaghi agrees, pointing to the “volatile combination of ‘currency shock’ and ‘chronic inflation'” in which “people and businesses can no longer make even basic economic decisions – from shopping and saving to planning for work, trade and education.”
And although economic factors are fueling the unrest, Hassanpour stressed that the protests are multifaceted. “Dissatisfaction with the regime has reached its peak in all sectors,” he said. “According to a survey, dissatisfaction reaches 92%.”
How did the government react?
Masoud Pezeshkian, Iranian President, replaced the head of the Central Bank and promised a dialogue with representatives of the protesters.
Vice President Mohammad Jafar Ghaempanah even apologized for the soaring inflation, describing the crisis as the result of Western sanctions and “economic warfare” against Iran.
The government, through state media, has acknowledged public discontent, but the issue has been described as “apolitical,” with authorities insisting that it is simply a “livelihood-related” issue, according to Qaredaghi, who called the regime’s response a “short-term signal” that the government is taking action. “It’s insufficient,” said the analyst.
Although economic reforms may help quell protests in the short term, “such measures will not alleviate public discontent because they will not lead to meaningful, tangible changes in people’s lives,” Hassanpour said.
While the government has acknowledged the protests and promised to address the crisis, the country’s attorney general has warned of a harsh crackdown against any transformation of the protests into “riots.”
The last significant challenge to the regime’s authority, during the “Women, Life, Freedom” protests in 2022, resulted in a brutal crackdown that resulted in hundreds of deaths and thousands of arrests, according to several human rights groups.
Is the Islamic Republic on the verge of collapse?
Exiled opposition figures have said the recent unrest could spell the end of the regime, in power since the 1979 revolution and the overthrow of the Shah of Iran.
Nobel Peace Prize laureate Shirin Ebadi said in an Instagram post on Tuesday that “the Islamic Republic is living its final days” and called on Iranians to channel their anger into throwing off the “cloak of tyranny.”
Reza Pahlavi, son of the last Shah of Iran, also called on the population to join the protests. “I call on all sectors of society to join their compatriots in the streets and call for the fall of this regime,” he said this week on Instagram.
Pahlavi also called on Iranian security forces to align with the people, saying: “This system is collapsing. Do not oppose the people.”
Mostafa Tajzadeh, a jailed political activist, warned in a statement issued from Evin prison that the lack of a clear outcome to the crisis could quickly tip Iran into “anarchy and chaos.”
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