Scientists have never liked the frightening nickname that journalists have given to the glacier to which the current Antarctic expedition is heading:
the “Last Judgment Glacier”.
Yes, the Thwaites Glacier is the size of Florida, and if it were to melt completely it would raise global sea levels by 60 centimeters.
Researchers aboard the icebreaker Araon plan to study the ice on Thwaites and the surrounding seas to estimate how quickly the glacier could collapse.
But Thwaites is not doomed to suffer such a fate, scientists say.
They point out that by reducing the carbon emissions that drive climate change, we could still save the glacier from oblivion.
However, nations are not quite on track to achieve this.
Globally, fossil fuel emissions rose to record levels in 2025 and show no signs of slowing.
A recent study concluded that this may be the case too late to prevent the ice shelves in this part of the Antarctic coast from melting to any extent.
Other researchers say this, although it is true unlikely Thwaites could collapse completely in the coming decades, they now have a clearer idea of what could cause its collapse in the second half of the century or beyond.
Condition
To understand these predictions, it’s helpful to know a little about the shape of the glacier.
Like all glaciers, Thwaites is made of solid ice, but as gravity pulls it toward sea level, it moves as a thick, heavy liquid (like molasses).
The Thwaites Ice forms in Antarctica but extends so far out to sea that the edge of the glacier protrudes from the bedrock and becomes a tongue of ice that floats on the waves.
A photo provided by J. Yungel/NASA shows cracked ice during a flight over the Thwaites Ice Shelf on October 16, 2012. (J. Yungel/NASA via The New York Times)
Now there are warm ocean currents fly over the ground this floating ice, causing it to melt and become thinner.
These currents also erode the base of the ice, or the part of the glacier that lies on bedrock.
This creates the Thwaites base, which scientists call theirs Baselineadvance further and further inland until, as scientists fear, the glacier could enter a dangerous cycle.
The bedrock beneath Thwaites is below sea level and slopes down, extending further inland than into the sea.
If the baseline is set back too much, this slope will allow much more warm seawater, such as flood water, to enter a basement.
This water will melt more floating ice and cause the bottom line to form withdraw further.
cycle
This feedback cycle—retreat and melt, melt and retreat—could irreversibly destabilize the glacier, causing large portions of its ice to slide into the ocean and melt.
“The consequences of this unstable regression will be felt all over the world in terms of dramatic sea level rise,” said Hilmar Gudmundsson, a glaciologist at Northumbria University in England.
According to a 2023 study by Gudmundsson and other researchers, Thwaites does not appear to have entered this cycle yet.
However, computer simulations have given him and his colleagues greater confidence in the glacier will collapse one day this way if the baseline drops too much.
“Basically, we have abandoned the idea:
“Yes, it could happen, but we don’t know with near absolute certainty,” Gudmundsson said.
Still, he added, it is very difficult to predict how long such a cycle might last.
Not all current research on Thwaites Glacier is bad news. According to a recent study, an unfavorable scenario for the glacier now seems less likely.
This has to do with the Thwaites ice cliffs, the steep, vertical edges left behind when chunks of ice break off and fall into the sea.
These cliffs are so high and steep that they can be unstable.
As more ice breaks away, higher and more unstable cliffs are exposed.
These too begin to crumble and it doesn’t take long before an uncontrolled collapse occurs.
A computer model published in 2024 suggests that Thwaites does not face this particular fate, although other scientists say more work is needed to rule out this possibility.
Naturally, catastrophic and catastrophic consequences attract a lot of attention.
But scientists are also working to improve their predictions of continued sea level rise caused by Antarctic ice flowing out to sea, breaking up and melting, said Doug Benn, a glaciologist at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland.
These gradual changes may not turn into a Hollywood disaster movie.
However, they are of utmost importance to the world’s deepest nations and ecosystems.
“The authorities will not plan for the next century. They will plan for the next decades,” Benn said.
A photo provided by J. Yungel/NASA shows cracked ice during a flight over the Thwaites Ice Shelf on October 16, 2012. (J. Yungel/NASA via The New York Times) 
