The capture of Nicolás Maduro caught the world’s attention this Saturday and, among other factors, there is the greatest anticipation regarding the opening of the markets this Monday. In this scenario, it is important to note that the data observes both the local market and the local market in detail Wall Street is that the government of Javier Milei must make the payment within a week Debt maturities are approximately $4.2 billion.
Although the Minister of Economic Affairs Luis Caputothere are still dollars missing from the treasury account in the BCRA to be able to expect payment next January 9th: apparently and from what he could know iProfessional Sources close to business say there is a shortage today 1.3 billion dollars in order to be able to pay this due date.
In the current context and with the “Venezuela Effect”what could create better economic and political conditions for the region, some Wall Street operators consulted iProfessional They claim that in this new context Caputo could do another one Debt placementlike that of BONAR 2029Nwith which he received some 910 million dollars Payment of a fee of 9.25% annuallyto obtain the missing dollars, although this can be done a maximum of one day in advance.
It happens that the recent events in Venezuela could improve from this Monday Country risk of the regionas this country is not on the radar of investors. For example, Venezuela’s sovereign risk closed at 12,645 basis points on Friday, making it the highest in the world.
Among the safest bonds in Latin America Uruguay, Chile, Peru and Paraguay can be found, all with a country risk below 200 points. Brazil and Mexico now coexist on a medium scale, above 200 points, although the bonds are gaining ground as they progress 2025.
Another important point that many claim is the great relationship between US President Donald Trump with Javier Milei can play very cheaply since Milei has always questioned the government Nicolas Maduro and he was also the first president in the world to receive it Edmundo Gonzalez after the election victory in Venezuela last year, which the Maduro government ignored.
Exchange with the BCRA and financing alternatives
The positive news is that in the Official Gazette Last Tuesday it was announced that the Ministry of Economic Affairs conducted an exchange with the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA)which brings you closer to closing the loan with international banks for up to 7 billion dollars.
Through the Official Gazette, the Ministry of Economy held an exchange with the BCRA in which it relented Title in dollars (AL35 and AL38) in exchange for Bonds denominated in pesos and linked to inflation.
Although it is a possibility that the REPO At international banks there is, after approval of the Budget 2026such as a new debt exchange without having to respect that Financial administration lawknown as Guzman lawwhich Congress agreed to 2021.
Finally, the alternatives evaluated by the economic team include: probability that the Santa Fe Province In the BCRA, liquidate a large portion of the 800 million that he received money for placing a bond in euros, or that the Buenos Aires City Government (CABA) liquidate in the BCRA part 600 million dollars which he received last month by placing a bond abroad.
Differences between maturing bonds
Of the running times approx 4.2 billion dollarswe have to differentiate between bonuses external legislation (global) and from local legislation (Bonares)Therefore, the payment mechanisms are different in both cases and in the first case require the dollars to be available one business day before the payment date.
According to the website of the Ministry of Economic Affairs 4,216 million dollars which expire on January 9th, 2,567 million are equivalent to Global bonds: 1,524 million They are capital and 1,043 million They are of interest. The rest 1,649 million are equivalent to Bonar bondsfrom 1,187 million capital and others 462 million of interests.
For all he could know iProfessional from sources close to the government, what is paid abroad – global bonds in dollars and euros – is transferred from the BCRA to the bank’s account Paying agent (BONY). This implies that the January 8th The Treasury must have these 4.2 billion dollars.
“With global bonds, the paying agent is the one who distributes the money because they know where each bond is located. The Argentine Republic does not know where each bond is located; What he knows is the exact amount he has to pay according to the coupon setting,” the source explained iProfessional.
For this reason, the money is sent to the paying agent and this distributes it among the various entities, which in turn outsource it by passing it on to the customers. For this reason, the transaction must be carried out one working day in advance.
It may happen that the holder owns a bond under foreign law but is located in Argentina. In this case, the government sends the money to the paying agency, which divides it into several agencies and sends the money back to Argentina together Joint Stock Bankbecause there are Argentinians or foreigners who have the bond deposited with a local stock broker.
In the meantime, the local bond payment will be made via a different route and will be passed through directly Joint Stock Bankwhich arguably makes it more efficient because once the government sends the money, it’s already distributed.
In the country, for payment of Bonar bondsThe money is transferred to the Caja de Valores, which then distributes it to the various people Settlement and Clearing Houses (ALyCs). For this reason it must be done a few days in advance and the owner usually collects it a day later. But the main problem lies in this Where are you going to get the dollars from? to meet the expiration date.
It must also be taken into account that part of the payment is made public intrasectoras there are bonds held by the BCRA that Anses and other organizations. Payments to private individuals at home and abroad are slightly lower $3.7 billionwhich in turn reduces the impact on reserves.
Dollars, foreign exchange bands and reserves
With the debut of the new scheme from Exchange rate equalization, adjusted for inflation from two previous months – in this case last November, 2.5% monthly-, the value of the dollar rose in all its variants on Friday and the market closely followed the distance from the upper limit of the band.
The roof of the Exchange band went from $1,526.1 from Tuesday to $1,529 and under the new adjustment, this cap will be reached on the last day of January $1,564.
He wholesale marketwhich serves as a reference for observing the distance with the top of the band, responded with an increase 1.7%what made him do it $1,475.
In 2025 it ended with a price in this segment $1,457 and yesterday it was found 56 pesos below from the roof of the band of the day. Meanwhile, the value of Retail dollar Banco Nacion had an increase of 15 pesoswhich caused it to approach $1,495. This is how he approaches it $1,500which last played in the first week of November 2025.
They also recorded increases by 1% The financial dollars: the dollar MEP reached the $1,504while the dollar CCL closed $1,539.
With this new scheme for the dollar, the BCRA hopes to add more foreign currency to strengthen the currency Net foreign reserves (RIN). In early January, dollar deposits from banks’ own portfolios were returned to international reserves and, in a standard technical move, returned to BCRA accounts each month. As a result, international reserves increased $1,934 million on the day and were in the 43,099 million dollars.
It should be noted that these assets were forfeited $1,718 million on Monday the 29th for the withdrawal of these deposits in accordance with the regulations of global net foreign currency position from financial institutions.
The initial decline in international reserves will be due to payments abroad. What is paid here is simply an account movement within the system. So if the holder does not withdraw the dollars from the bank, the gross reserves do not decrease. Although the decline may be smaller if it is decided to “exchange” the dollars available in New York to deposit them in Argentina and close the gap between the dollars MEP/CCLwhat lies in between 2.5% and 3% in the last few weeks.
Development of Argentine country risk
In a context marked by economic ups and downs and strong political tensions in Latin America after the Arrest of Nicolas MaduroHe Country risk once again took a central place in the analysis of the markets. This indicator, which reflects how international investors assess the solvency and stability of each economy, revealed a heterogeneous scenario across the region 2025.
Argentina It was one of the most closely watched economies in a year that saw a series of ups and downs. Country risk increased in September 1,456 pointsa critical level that responded to the political impact of the official defeat in the legislative elections in the province of Buenos Aires.
However, the situation was reversed after the victory of Advances in freedom in the October elections, which led to a significant decline in the indicator, which closed last Friday at 553 basis pointsthe lowest value since then July 27, 2018during the government of Mauricio Macri.
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