The government of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva should see a new face from April with the departure of the ministers who will stand in the elections. The plan defined at the Palácio do Planalto is that the majority of replacements will be the current executive secretaries of the portfolios, who, in general, have a more technical profile than a political one. The trend is that almost half of the Esplanade is undergoing changes.
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Lula defined the strategy to avoid a drop in the pace of delivery of works and projects, which could lead to the paralysis of the government in a year when the president must increase his popularity to run for office.
— I know that there is a flood of ministers who are going to leave, I think at least 18. I will not prevent anyone from leaving, I will just hope — declared Lula, during a breakfast with journalists in mid-December.
That number could reach 22. The president also revealed plans to hold talks with outgoing aides. The first to take the plunge should be the directors of Finance, Fernando Haddad, and of Justice, Ricardo Lewandowski. In an interview with GLOBO, the head of the economic team revealed that he had already spoken to the president about his departure. A few days later, he announced that he would resign from his post in February.
Lewandowski said in a conversation with Lula on December 23 that he considered his mission in the government already accomplished. None of them intend to run for office. Haddad’s plan is to collaborate in Lula’s re-election campaign. But the president himself has already publicly declared that he would like the Minister of Finance to be a candidate in São Paulo. The PT is pushing him to run for government elections or for the Senate. Haddad is working to place the department under the command of his number 2, executive secretary Dario Durigan.
Lewandowski wants to have a calmer routine near his family. The choice of his replacement at the Ministry of Justice is open.
Vice-President Geraldo Alckmin will also have to leave the Ministry of Industry and Commerce if he runs in the elections in São Paulo, as part of the PT advocates, or if he becomes Lula’s vice-presidential candidate again. Executive Secretary Márcio Elias Rosa, former attorney general of the São Paulo Public Ministry, could take over this portfolio.
Among the ministries that operate within the Palácio do Planalto, changes are also planned within the Civil House and the Secretariat of Institutional Relations (SRI). Rui Costa, holder of the first portfolio, is expected to leave his post in April to run for the Senate of Bahia. The post is expected to go to executive secretary Miriam Belchior, who was planning minister in Dilma Rousseff’s government.
SRI leader Gleisi Hoffmann is expected to run for a new term in Paraná. His replacement is still not defined. One possibility would be for Lula to promote the executive secretary, the diplomat Marcelo Costa.
It is also possible that the Minister of Social Communication, Sidônio Palmeira, will leave his post to lead the marketing of Lula’s re-election campaign.
Apart from the Planalto, the departures of ministers Marina Silva (Environment), Simone Tebet (Planning), Jader Filho (Cities), Waldez Goés (National Integration), Renan Filho (Transport), Silvio Costa Filho (Ports and Airports), Wolney Queiroz (Pensions), Paulo Teixeira (Agrarian Development), André Fufuca (Sport), André de Paula (Fisheries), Macaé are also considered certain. Evaristo (Human Rights), Sonia Guajajara (Indigenous Peoples) and Anielle Franco (Racial Equality).
Among them, Renan Filho (MDB) is the only one who should run for governor. The Minister of Transport will try to regain command of Alagoas, a state he already led between 2015 and 2022. Marina, Tebet, Waldez, Fufuca and Costa Filho could compete for a seat in the Senate. The others plan to be elected deputies.
The political future of Marina and Tebet depends above all on Lula. The president must participate in discussions that will determine whether the current Minister of the Environment will be a candidate for the Senate of São Paulo. If this path is not viable, Marina, who is a dismissed MP, must try to renew her mandate.
To run, she may be forced to change parties, as her group within the Sustainability Network is at war with that of Heloísa Helena, one of the party’s spokespersons (a position equivalent to that of president). The most likely candidate to replace Marina at the Environment Ministry is current Executive Secretary João Paulo Capobianco, who has a long history at the ministry and in activism in the environmental field.
In the case of Tebet, it is possible that the Minister of Planning will run for the Senate of Mato Grosso do Sul, his home state, or of São Paulo. The decision must be made in the first semester. It is hoped that Executive Secretary Gustavo Guimarães, who has extensive experience in economic positions within the Executive, but has never been on the front line, will take on this role.
A Lula aide with a seat at the Palácio do Planalto says that almost all ministries should remain with the current executive secretaries. However, he emphasizes that there will be exceptions.
The tendency to promote number two is stronger in the ministries of the infrastructure sector, such as that of Transport, which should be occupied by George Santoro, former secretary of Finance of Alagoas, and of Ports and Airports, with the promotion of Tomé Franca, former secretary of Urban Development and Tourism of Pernambuco.
Entrepreneurship and Small Business Minister Márcio Franca, Mines and Energy Minister Alexandre Silveira, and Education Minister Camilo Santana could also leave their positions by April. The first, affiliated with the PSB, dreams of running for governor of São Paulo, but could run for another position. Silveira, affiliated with the PSD, is mentioned as a possible candidate for the Senate of Minas Gerais.
Camilo could leave the MEC to try to re-enter the government of Ceará, given the threat posed by the pre-candidacy of Ciro Gomes (PSDB) to the re-election project of PT member Elmano de Freitas. The minister is considered more competitive than the current governor.
Before the start of the year, the Tourism portfolio underwent the last change made by Lula to date. Celso Sabino, expelled from União Brasil for not respecting the party’s decision to leave the government, was replaced by Gustavo Feliciano, appointed by part of the party’s seats in the House and ally of the Speaker of the House, Hugo Motta (Republicanos-PB). Sabino is looking for a party to run for the Maranhão Senate.
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