The ever-complicated geopolitics of borders in Africa adds a new chapter before the recognition by Israel of Somaliland as an independent state. A small territory, unknown to many and which does not appear on most maps, located in the Horn of Africa, and which functions de facto as an independent territory since its separation from Somalia, the country of which it is officially part, in 1991.
This recognition, announced by surprise by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, makes Tel Aviv the first government to recognize Somaliland, opening the door for other countries to follow in its footsteps. despite widespread international rejection — of the UN, the African Union, the Arab League, China or Turkey, among others — which the decision motivated and to which no country has joined for the moment.
With Hargeisa as its capital, an area of 137,000 square kilometers and a population of 6.2 million inhabitantsAccording to the official census, Somaliland’s aspirations for independence come from afar. Unlike the rest of Somalia (which was an Italian colony), Somaliland (in the northwest of the country) was a British protectorate for almost 80 years, until it became independent from the United Kingdom and voluntarily joined Somalia, which also gained independence from Italy in 1960.
A turbulent history and de facto independence
However, the early days of Somali independence were rocky and the hasty and poorly managed union of Somaliland was seen in the northern region as a change for the worse, in which its inhabitants and institutions have seen their power diminishedand without legal harmonization between the two territories.
The political and economic inequalities between Somalia and Somaliland, which caused strong tensions between the two territories, were exacerbated with the coming to power of dictator Siad Barre, who imposed a totalitarian and centralized military regimegoing so far as to bomb the capital of Somaliland, Hargeisa.
However, Siad Barre’s dictatorship ended in 1991, when the Somali rebellion provoked his exile in a spiral of violence that led to the Somali Civil War (which technically continues today). With the collapse of the centralized state, northern Somaliland decided, under the pretext of restoring its sovereignty, break away from Somalia and create an independent statewithout illegal recognition of any kind until now.
Unlike many African territorial conflicts, there are no ethnic or religious differences between Somalia and Somaliland: in both territories there are a majority of ethnic Somali and Sunni Muslim populations. Under an unstable and violent political union, Somaliland became an independent territory.
Curiously, in front of the instability who presides over Somalia, mired in civil war since 1991, with weak political power and where infiltrations by terrorist groups – such as Al Shabab – and attacks are frequent, as well as dependence on international missions and foreign military support, Somaliland retained its de facto independencewith local forces protecting its borders, without infiltration of jihadist groups and maintaining peace outside the violent conflicts of its neighbor. Somaliland was indeed able to hold elections and manage peaceful transitions of power.
However, both Somaliland and Somalia are located in the Horn of Africa, one of the poorest regions on the planetwhere drought and lack of resources weigh particularly heavily on an economy based on agriculture and livestock. However, not being recognized by any country in the world, Somaliland has been excluded from most international cooperation or foreign support programs.
Strategic interests make it a potential ally for Israel
Today, Somaliland sees 35 years of international isolation broken for the first time with the Israeli decision. Thousands of residents celebrated in the streets of Hargeisa in a stadium, waving Israeli flags and with fireworks. This recognition, the result of months of contacts between the two governments, opens the door to other countries which could follow, now or in the future, in Tel Aviv’s footsteps. The aspiration of the Hargeisa government: for the United States to do it, even if it still seems far away – Donald Trump himself having shown his disinterest in an interview with New York Post—. Somaliland also hopes that the Cooperation with Israel opens doors to development in agricultural, technological or industrial matters.
For its part, Israel hid its decision in “shared values and strategic interests” with Somaliland, according to the press release issued by its Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Netanyahu himself has assured in interviews that Israel is seeking strengthen ties with what it considers a “moderate and democratic Muslim country” which “wishes to adhere to the Abraham Accords – promoted by the United States in 2020 for the normalization of relations between the Jewish state and the Arab world”.
Israeli diplomacy justifies its decision by asserting that Somaliland has the fundamental elements to be able to speak of a state: a population, a territory, armed forces and a stable system. But Tel Aviv has many other reasons to take this step now, particularly on the geopolitical level: the alliance with Somaliland will bring it privileged access to the coasts of the Gulf of Adenwhich connects the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean, with all the commercial possibilities that this implies.
Also on the military level, since the recognition of Somaliland opens the doors of military cooperation agreements with which Israel will be able to face the Yemen’s Houthisapproximately 32 kilometers off the coast of Somaliland, separated by the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. Israel could thus face one of its great enemies, linked to the Axis of Resistance that constitutes Iran and its networks abroad, such as Islamic Jihad, Hamas or the Houthis themselves.
Another hypothesis put forward by analysts is that Israel could consider Somaliland as a territory in which move Palestinians from Gazarazed after the Israeli offensive that followed the attacks of October 7, 2023. The Palestinian National Authority, which condemned Israeli recognition, evaluated this possibility, with which Israel could depopulate the Palestinian enclave.
But above all, Israel gains an ally who will allow it gain presence in an entirely Arab regionas well as counteract the presence of other enemy countries, such as Iran or Turkey. Military cooperation, through which Israel could deploy weapons or even bases in the Horn of Africa, could give Tel Aviv a strategic advantage in this region of the world.
The Arab world sees a dangerous precedent for Africa
However, opposition and rejection of this decision was widespread across much of the world. Especially in the Arab world and Africa, where the African Union, the Arab League and even the UN are calling for preserve sovereignty and territorial integrity from Somalia.
Twenty-one Arab and African countries rejected Israeli recognition in a joint statement, including countries with which Tel Aviv maintains relations such as Egypt and Jordan; but also Saudi Arabia, signatory of the Abraham Accords and with which Israel has been trying to establish contacts for years.
Critics of the decision point to an unprecedented measure that could foster political and geographic instability in the Horn of Africa and across the continent, setting a dangerous precedent against the sovereignty of an independent country.
However, many actors are wary of the mere Israeli presence in the area. Yemen’s Houthis have already assured that they will consider any Israeli presence or interest as a target. in the region. Turkey, China, Iran and Qatar also strongly rejected and condemned the move.
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