- How much will the inflation number change?
Starting in 2026, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures inflation in Argentina, will change. The new methodology will not be applied until February, when January price increase data is processed. The reason will be to “maintain good statistical practices” that all countries in the world have and that recommend regular methodological improvements. But in Argentina after the intervention of Indec during Kirchnerism Every change creates political sensitivitywhich led to delays in implementation.
The new inflation dataIt will be crucial for exchange rate policy as the dollar bands are updated by this indicator.
Since the new methodology will give greater importance to the prices of services, inflation could be higher in terms of results in 2026 a few points higher Consultants estimate that this is not what would have been the case with the current methodology, although it will not be a significant deviation.
The only official information currently available is that published in the Inflation Report for the month of September. It explains that the implementation of the calculation methodology will be “in accordance with the good statistical practices that guide INDEC”. In addition, it is explained that the distribution has advantages based on the results of the January 2026 changes, such as interpretation and analysis in intra-year comparisons that are linked to the current CPIAnd. He adds that this will make it possible to have “coherent and consistent average prices for the statistical operations that require it”.
The latest staff report from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) also revealed information about the changes in the middle of the year. It said that the search aimed to “better reflect structural changes in cost patterns and improve data quality”.
The changes to the CPI have been in place since March of this year, but the government decided to wait. Index is a politically sensitive issue after Kirchnerism intervened in public statistics. The government believed that changing the thermometer on the key economic variables it wanted to prioritize in the middle of an election year would have raised doubts. The downfall of President Javier Milei was the reasonand we had to “measure with the same yardstick”Using the same methodology, the government was able to end 2025 with an electoral victory, largely based on reducing inflation from 25% monthly in December 2023 to the 2% range in recent months.
Although the methodology is ready, it is not yet public. but it will be in the next few weeks. In fact, Indec is very transparent about how it constructs its indicators. Everything is published on the website. The current owner, Marco Lavagna, will bring together different sectors such as study centers, consultancies or universities. He will also do this publicly in the media. The credibility and institutionality of the statistical system is as important as the precise construction of an indicator.
Although they do not go beyond the borders, Lavagna holds dozens of meetings with various actors in society. For example, during the previous government of Alberto Fernández, when clothing led the price increases, he received textile entrepreneurs with doubts about the level of the measure. The same thing happened last year to businesspeople in the restaurant and hotel sector, an area that led the increase.
The methodology will include an update of the consumption basket with a greater weight on services, as is the case today with the Buenos Aires City Index. Inflation in Buenos Aires ended 2024 with an increase of 136.7%, while national Indec inflation closed at 118%. In 2025, an election year in which interest rate increases were moderate, the data is similar: Inflation in Buenos Aires has risen 28.3% since November, while national inflation is at 27.9%.
Despite different methods With the collapse of inflation, the differences are decimal. The same thing could happen in 2026. The number of departments is expanded and increased to 13. In addition, the weight of some categories will change, such as housing, which will increase from 12 to 15%. Changes in inflation methodology require an update to the CPI basket to add new consumption patterns. New elements such as digital services or subscriptions to platforms are being integrated to reflect household consumption more “reliably”. The price development is currently based on a 2004/2005 household expenditure surveymore than 20 years ago.
However, this is not the only indicator that is being sought to be updated. The focus is also on the salary index, where, for example, the salary of informal workers has a five-month delay in publication. “National accounting methods are being updated all over the world, but no one notices. Here the topic is much more sensitive“commented a source within the government. Recently there have been new additions of reports with valuable information such as business trends in the industry or supermarkets or the mining index.
How much will the inflation number change?
The director of the consulting firm Analytica, Claudio Caprarulo, considered that the methodological update was a “necessary step” and that as the weight of services increases, inflation will also increase. If the 2017/2018 household expenditure survey had been used this year and not the 2004/2005 survey, would have been 1 percentage point higherso 29%.
In the same vein, Eco Go economist Lucio Garay Méndez said that inflation will be higher due to the greater weight of services, with services increasing more in 2026. This will happen for two reasons, said Garay Méndez: “At the beginning of the year, the electricity and gas tariffs will be updated with the abolition of subsidies. And it seems that this plan of opening to international trade will continue where foreign goods compete with local ones, and this will also mean that the goods that now have less weight will increase less.” “These two effects add up and make the new methodology higher than if one were to measure with the old methodology in 2026.”.
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