Dollar quotes began rising on the first day of 2026, the debut of the new float band upgrade system for the official exchange rate announced by the economic team. The band’s cap rose this Friday from $1,526.1 to $1,529.
The Banco Nación dollar closed at $1,445 and $1,495 at the buy and sell points, respectively, up $15 from the previous day.
The wholesale dollar used as a reference for Watch the distance to the top of the band. It responded with a 1.7% rise, closing at $1,475. This puts it below the upper limit of the daily range at $56.
The financial dollar also saw an increase of about 1%: the MEP was around $1,504, while the cash balance with settlement was around $1,539.
New year, new exchange rate system with high debt repayments and reduced subsidies
As for the price increase, Leo AnzaloneDirector of CEPEC explained to PERFIL that “we see an overreaction, a ‘“Overshooting” is typical of moments of exchange rate system change that should not cause concern. “An exchange rate that is slightly higher than what the economy has been supporting in that sense is much healthier.”
And he added that in the short term, “it’s likely we’ll see one.” more natural and tighter glide to the top of the bandwhich will be very good for the economy, but these movements in particular and in isolation pose no threat to the overall economy.”
New era for the dollar update
As of this Friday, January 2nd, the new regime for updating exchange rate bands due to inflationn, leaving behind the 2% system that has been in effect since last March.
In this first update, the bands will move with a two-month lag in line with the latest inflation data reported by INDEC. Starting from the November CPI of 2.5%, both the lower and upper limits of the system are adjusted in this ratio. Analysts say there are some tensions with the new framework.
Accordingly Ignacio Morales, Chief Investments Officer of Wise Capital: “This is a key part of the economic team’s strategy, ffacilitate the accumulation of foreign currencies without pushing the exchange rate towards the upper limit of the system. “The goal is to prevent any dollar purchase by the central bank from ultimately forcing a sales intervention to meet the established limits.”
“Budget 2026 calls for an official dollar of $1,423 next December, with annual inflation estimated at 10.1%. This value is already outdated compared to the wholesale price, which is over $1,450. “This reinforces the idea that the system will have to adapt to more challenging price dynamics than envisioned on paper,” Morales added.
Nicolás Parreira, economist and director of Financial Consulting, told PERFIL: “Although the new exchange rate band system aims at predictability, anchoring expectations and making the exchange rate honest, the combination of financial pressures, “Distrust of the speed of disinflation and seasonality will lead to tensions in the foreign exchange market.”
For the economist, “many players involved in the market are of the opinion that the dollar is somewhat behind.” Added to this is the behavior of retailers who… When they notice a lag in the exchange rate, they go out to buy dollars and use them for vacations, for example. All of this will create pressure in these months, at least at the beginning of this new exchange rate band system.”
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