2026 will have the challenge grow, add reserves and offset the decline in inflationwhile he recovers Wages and access to the market Debts.
The government expects annual growth of 5% and inflation of 10.1%, but the changes that began on January 1 pose a challenge.
Reservations
The government is introducing a new exchange rate band system. The update is based on inflation from two months ago. That’s how it was in January The upper limit is $1,556 and the lower limit is $944.
In doing so, the government expressly expressed its commitment Accumulate reserves. This occurs with an increase in the demand for money, expanding the monetary base without causing inflation. Purchases will fluctuate between $10,000 and $17,000 million. In order not to put pressure on the exchange rate, daily purchases correspond to 5% of the volume made that day. Analytica estimates they will average $20 million to $30 million.
activity
Activity rebounded by 4.8% and 3.2% in September and October, respectively each, but for the a new autumn In November (-0.7% according to Analytica). For 2026, the government forecasts growth of 5%, which is in line with the expected closure in 2025.
However, CP Consultora does not see any incentives to reverse the stagnation of activity in 2026.”In the absence of clear growth drivers and ongoing exchange rate uncertainty, the baseline scenario continues to assume stagnation in the economy and incomes.“, they warn.
Another question is whether the Growth will spread throughout the productive network or it focuses on sectors with a low impact on employment. “For now, the drivers do not seem to expect any improvement in the general industry situation: None of the aggregate demand drivers alone appears to have the power to initiate an expansion cycle.” they added from Qualy.
He credit Domestic would be a key driver of consumption, although the defaults will put pressure on the possibility of a recovery from the cash shortage by driving up lending rates by 10%, according to CP estimates.
With expensive loans, The need to recover salaries becomes keysince they are below the 2023 level with an increase in fixed costs: the benefit basket in the AMBA has increased by 561% compared to December 2023, while inflation has increased by 185%, according to the UBA Subsidy Observatory, resulting in a lower margin of disposable income.
Without these variables, there is little incentive for a recovery in peso demand.
Debts
According to the Congressional Budget Office, maturities through 2026 amount to nearly $20 billion. “There is no doubt that the debt will be paid off. However, the question arises as to what source of financing this will come from.” This has an impact on the remaining variables. If the Treasury manages to refinance abroad, it will relieve pressure on the local foreign exchange market, exchange rate and prices,” explained Claudio Caprarulo, director of Analytica.
The Minister of Economics, Luis Caputotries to limit Argentina’s dependence on Wall Street, but andThe IMF and the central bank hope that access to international debt markets will be restored before mid-year to refinance maturities without increasing external debt. Sustainably reducing country risk will be crucial. Investors are awaiting determinations on January maturities and the central bank’s first moves to build reserves.
inflation
The new exchange rate system poses a challenge to inflation accelerated in the last six months of the year.
“It will be interesting to see how the trade-off between disinflation and reserve accumulation is resolved. The Economic Cabinet expressed its goal to buy dollars as soon as demand for pesos increases again and market volumes allow it. Today, the Treasury is selling to support the dollar in the $1,450 zone, prioritizing disinflation leading to a cheaper dollar where carry risk is greater and there is an incentive to use accumulation dollars,” said Lucio Garay Mendez, Eco Go economist.
“If the market does not support this and the exchange rate does not undergo a new appreciation cycle, we will see a price index that has great difficulty breaking through the May minimum (1.5%) and even risks accelerating,” they noted from Vectorial.
excess
The government has set itself the goal 1.5% of GDP, To do this, after two years of spending cuts (albeit less in 2025), it will have to recover revenues in areas such as public works or deliveries to the provinces where there is no further room for adjustment. Falling revenues in 2025 pose a challenge, but reforms are an opportunity to add resources.
Investments
In July 2026, the Large Investment Incentive Regime (RIGI), which has already led to $16 billion in announcements, will expire. As El Cronista expectedthe government is working to expand the regime while Congress amends the Glacier Act, which could mean another $30 billion for mining. According to CEPA, foreign direct investment is -$1,242 million since December 2023.
The central bank assumed that as the foreign exchange market strengthened and the Treasury regained access to external markets, “may consider it appropriate to continue to make the existing foreign exchange restrictions on dividend holdings and the payment of trade debts more flexible”. That is, checking stocks for companies.
Reforms
The first quarter will focus on labor and tax reforms to formalize employment and increase revenues. The government committed to submitting one to the IMF by the end of 2026 Pension system reform this “simplifies the current fragmented system and improves the proportionality between contributions and benefits.”
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