Summary
Bolsonaro’s allies are articulating alliances in the Northeast for the 2026 elections, seeking to defeat the PT’s hegemony, while the left is betting on Lula’s popularity to maintain its regional strength.
With Jair Bolsonaro (PL) arrested and ineligible, the former president’s allies in the Northeast are forming new blocs to try to contain the PT’s dominance in the 2026 elections. While the PT is once again betting on the Lula factor to maintain regional hegemony, Bolsonaro’s members are trying – even in the midst of a crisis within their own base – to build an alliance that could intensify the dispute between state governments and the Senate.
The central strategy in the United States is the grouping of local right and center leaders around a single opposition project. In Bahia and Ceará, the 1st and 3rd electoral colleges in the region, conversations focus on the need for the group to make concessions, without “playing” with vanity, to reach consensus and consolidate the names that have a chance of winning in the elections.
Aware that the Northeast is a stronghold of the PT, the Bolsonaristas do not openly say that they are abandoning state governments due to the lack of a competitive candidacy, but they clearly demonstrate a greater interest in the conflict in the Senate.
Although nothing is official yet, the state in the region where the opposition alliance seems strongest is Bahia. João Roma (PL), former Minister of Citizenship, and the former mayor of Salvador, ACM Neto (União Brasil), candidate for state government in 2022, have come together and are expected to march together in 2026.
As part of the PL’s strategy, the former minister will focus on the Senate, while the ACM will once again try to defeat Jerônimo, who is the third consecutive PT member to govern the state. “We have a great interest in forming a strong group in the Senate to create ‘checks and balances’ in the country,” he told the Earth João Roma, who chairs the PL in Bahia.
The alliance with Ciro Gomes in failure
If in Bahia the recomposition of forces involves rapprochements between the Bolsonaristas and local center-right leaders, which is the political position of ACM Neto, according to him, in Ceará the opposition has rearticulated itself into an unprecedented bloc that unites the Bolsonarista bases (PL and União Brasil) with traditional figures of the progressive camp such as Ciro Gomes, a traditional center-left labor politician currently affiliated with the PSDB.
The rapprochement between the most Bolsonaro wing of the União Brasil of Ceará, linked to the former deputy captain Wagner, who chairs the party in the state, and Ciro continues to progress very well, but between the PL and Ciro things calmed down after the public confrontation led by former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro and Bolsonaro’s three children in December.
Michelle, like the majority of Bolsonarian supporters, is opposed to the political agreement reached with Ciro to defeat the PT governor, Elmano de Freitas. “Not all of Ciro’s voters accept his alliance with Bolsonaro, and not all of Bolsonaro’s voters accept the possible support of Bolsonaro’s supporters for Ciro,” summed up a Ceará opposition leader of the friction and discomfort that followed Michelle’s speech.
As in any other region, in the Northeast, the decisions of the PL are coordinated by the national structure, from top to bottom, in line with Bolsonaro and Valdemar da Costa Neto. Although the PL’s support for Ciro has been subject to friction, leading André Fernandes to reconsider his approach, behind the scenes, according to one interlocutor, the PL will follow the path indicated by Bolsonaro, even if at first the former president finds it difficult to mediate.
At Eartha Bolsonarista leader in the region declared that the PL’s break with Ciro was not definitive.
“Of course, the arrival of Ciro strengthens our group, and the polls themselves show his name as a very strong name, both for a candidacy and also as a sponsor of any other candidate who may run for governor or senator.”
If the PL fails to reach an agreement to support Ciro, due to his criticism of Bolsonaro, one of the proposed alternatives is to nominate a lighter name as the opposition candidate in Ceará. In this sense, one of the suggestions put forward is that of Roberto Cláudio (União), former mayor of Fortaleza, sponsored by Ciro.
Antagonism towards the PT has surfaced
Besides Bahia and Ceará, Piauí and Rio Grande do Norte are other northeastern states controlled by the PT. With the exception of Piauí, where Governor Rafael Fonteles enjoys good approval, in the other three the PT will have difficulty remaining in government, according to research thermometers published by the Real Time Big Data institute.
In Rio Grande do Norte, the mayor of Mossoró, Alysson Bezerra (União), and senator Rogério Marinho (PL-RN) evoke scenarios for a possible dispute within the government. Governor Fátima Bezerra (PT) cannot run for a third term and PT pre-candidate Cadu Xavier, Secretary of State for Finance, appears in third position in the polls.
In Bahia, ACM Neto, the main opposition figure, appears ahead in the fight for the government in the Real Time Big Data survey. In the simulation, the former mayor of Salvador and vice-president of União Brasil has 44% of voting intentions. Governor Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT), who is seeking re-election, has 35%.
In Ceará, in the first panorama tested by the Real Time Big Data institute, Elmano (PT) and Ciro (PSDB) are tied at 39%. Senator Eduardo Girão (Novo) appears with 14%. In a final scenario, without Girão, Ciro comes out on top with 44%, against 42% for the current PT governor.
Although they recognize that PL replacements, like Flávio Bolsonaro, would not have the same strength as Bolsonaro on a political platform, the allies of these three states do not see much electoral harm in the former president’s absence from the campaign trail, since Bolsonaro’s rejection is greater than his approval.
Unofficially, one of them claims that what will decide the election is not Bolsonaro or Lula, but rather the antagonism towards the PT which is “very high”, due to the lack of improvement in life and public security problems. In Bahia there are 20 years of PT management. In Ceará, 12 years old. In Rio Grande do Norte, 8 years.
The Lula factor
On the PT side, we can read that the PT’s success in 2026 in the North-East region will be supported by the same elements as in 2022: the political strength of Lula in the region, the PT’s project for the country and the identification of the people with the 13.
At EarthTássio Brito, state president of the Bahia Workers’ Party, said the PT’s high vote in the Northeast is due to the people’s recognition that the party’s project “sees and includes them.”
“Whatever the opposition candidate (in the race for Senate, government or presidency), the people will choose whether they will vote for Lula and the project that Lula represents or for another. We are convinced that once again in the Northeast, the people will choose our political project,” he said.
If on the opposition side the main flank explored will be public security, in an attempt to find an “Achilles heel”, on the government side the emphasis will be placed on highlighting, according to the members of the PT, the reconstruction of Brazil under Lula’s mandate, with an improvement in the economy and a reduction in inequalities.
At the regional level, the PT also claims to be ready to discuss any issue, including public safety, citing strong actions at the federal and state levels.
Regarding the opposition’s strategy of trying to exploit PT project fatigue, a prominent PT figure said the government has data to counter, citing achievements in education, health and the fight against poverty.
“We do not underestimate any adversary, we respect all adversaries, but we fear none,” emphasized Antônio Filho, known as Conin, state president of the PT of Ceará.
Lulistas, yes, PT members, not so much
In the Northeast region, five of the nine states are not governed by the PT. In these places, direct confrontation will not take place between the PT and the Bolsonaristas, but that does not mean that the Lula factor will be less important at the state level.
Pernambuco, the second largest electoral college in the region, is governed by Raquel Lyra (PSD). A former tucana, the governor migrated to the PSD in March as part of a plan for rapprochement with the federal government.
In 2026, Raquel’s main competitor will be João Campos (PSB). Although Lula tends to support João, Raquel nodded to the PT member seeking a dual platform, with Lula supporting both candidates. João is the favorite in the dispute.
In Maranhão, Governor Carlos Brandão (No Party) can no longer be re-elected. Outside of the debate, the favorite is the mayor of São Luís, Eduardo Braide (PSD). His main competitor will be Orleans Brandão (MDB), the non-PT member most likely to be supported by Lula, if the PT does not present a candidate.
In Paraíba, the current governor João Azevêdo (PSB) is in his second term. Unable to run again, the governor will support the current vice-governor Lucas Ribeiro (PP), who will have to compete with the mayor of João Pessoa, Cícero Lucena (MDB). Both expect support from Lula.
In Alagoas, Paulo Dantas (MDB) cannot represent himself. In his place, the candidate will be Renan Filho (MDB), Minister of Transport in the Lula government, who governed the state before Dantas. Renan has the support of Lula and will have as his main competitor the mayor of Maceió (AL), João Henrique Caldas (PL), JHC.
In Sergipe, the current governor Fábio Mitidieri (PSD) will seek re-election. Favorites in the dispute, Mitidieri will have Valmir de Francisquinho (PL) as his main competitor.
About The Author
