In Argentina, dollar supply was always linked to agricultural performance. In fact, the last two caused droughts External crises. In 2018, the combination of an extreme dry season and the capital outflow that caused the rate to rise in the US led to a request for help from Mauricio Macri to the IMF. Between 2022 and 2023, Sergio Massa experienced the largest crop loss in decades, and the result was a complete blockage of dollar outflow from which we are still recovering.
Luckily our expectations “Dollar factories” for 2026 they are positive. International prices don’t help that much because, as already mentioned, there is an oversupply of some crops. He Argentine wheat Luckily he found new ones Markets Alternatives to Brazil such as Indonesia and Vietnam, without forgetting that towards the end of 2025 the first delivery was made to China.
The Asian giant has achieved another miracle: Fighting with the United States, it decided to concentrate its soybean purchases in South America, which led to a boom Exports promises to add additional dollars excess commercially. Under this effect, the specialist Marcelo Elizondo estimates that the External sales of the past year could be the second highest in history.
Although it was a decision that could not avoid controversy, the loss of Withholdings on the main crops had a positive impact on producers by increasing their profitability US$38 and US$76 per hectare depending on the area, according to a study by the Mediterranean Foundation. It is clear that the burden is still high for many and reducing it does not prevent it in some cases Business has become unprofitable.
But lower-cost producers have already invested in increasing production. Harvest 2025/2026. To get a feel for what these decisions might mean, the Cordoba Stock Exchange It is estimated that the campaign will reach a total record 140 million tonnes, despite expected lower soy production.
Added to this context is the fact that the field was no longer the sole driving force of science Foreign exchange market. Thanks to Vaca Muerta, oil and gas production and fuel exports continue to break their own records. In the first case it is Shale oil extraction (unconventional oil) saw an annual increase of 22% in October. External sales in this sector are expected to be around $10 billion at the end of the year, on average $13,000 in 2026a value that can serve as a lower limit for optimists.
Mining is booming and although it has yet to reach volumes, the transactions of the major global operators and the announcements of investment They didn’t stop. The government is even committed to expanding the RIGI so that this sector has room to take up new projects when it does congress It advocates changes to the Glacier Act and gives provinces the power to determine which areas can be more flexible in their exploitation.
Will this scenario be enough to create a dollar supply compatible with the US dollar? Reservations What does the BCRA want to add? Everything indicates that there will at least be more trade dollars that in 2025
We would like to get to know you!
Register for free at El Cronista for an experience tailored to you.
About The Author
