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- author, Julia Braun
- To roll, BBC News Brazil
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Reading time: 6 minutes
After months of shows of force and threats against Venezuela, Donald Trump “needs to blow up some targets” in the South American country or he will appear weak, according to former US Ambassador John Feeley.
“For now, Trump has to blow up some targets in Venezuela,” the diplomat told BBC News Brasil.
“Of course, he’s constrained by America’s domestic electoral politics, which says, ‘Don’t start another war in an election year.’ But at the same time, he was led here by (Secretary of State) Marco Rubio, and if he doesn’t demonstrate military strength, he will look weak. And we know Trump hates weakness.”
Feeley was once considered one of the top experts on Latin America at the U.S. State Department. He served as U.S. ambassador to Panama and left the government in 2018, during Trump’s first term, because he disagreed with Republican decisions.
For the diplomat, if the land attack against Venezuela announced last Monday (12/29) by the American president is confirmed, “this will represent a significant escalation of hostilities” between the two countries.
However, Feeley says, Trump’s “confusing and contradictory revelation” about the alleged clandestine operation, as well as the lack of independent verification of the attack, undermine “its effectiveness.”
Trump, however, did not elaborate on the alleged operation, saying only that “there was a large explosion in the dock area where drugs are loaded onto the ships.”
According to American media outlets such as the New York Times and CNN, government sources reported that the explosion was caused by a drone attack carried out by the CIA.
Neither the American armed forces, nor the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), nor the White House have commented on this information. The Venezuelan government has also not confirmed any US attacks on its territory.
For John Feeley, revealing information about the alleged operation could endanger American agents present in the country.
“The president’s confusing and contradictory revelations about the alleged clandestine operation and lack of independent verification have already undermined its effectiveness. If the theory is to prove to Maduro that CIA agents are roaming freely and sabotaging unspecified Venezuelan infrastructure, revealing to the regime where and when they attacked is not the best way to protect these agents from future attacks,” he said.
On the other hand, the diplomat said, “if the attack didn’t happen, Trump would just look like a confused old man talking nonsense.”
“Trump has all the cards in his bag”
In recent months, the United States has attacked dozens of ships in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific, claiming they were carrying drugs, without presenting any evidence.
More than a hundred people died in the attacks — which several legal experts call illegal and which Trump’s critics call extrajudicial killings.
The United States also mobilized a large naval force in the Caribbean, moving its largest and most modern aircraft carrier, the Gerald R. Ford, there in the midst of so-called Operation Southern Spear.
In October, Trump confirmed that he had authorized the CIA to conduct covert operations in Venezuela.
Shortly before, the United States had seized one of these ships, the tanker Skipper, and has since intercepted a second ship, the Centuries, and pursued a third, the Bella 1.
Credit, Personal file
“I don’t believe this is a policy based on a well-designed strategy. A strategy must always start with an end goal, and if the Trump administration’s ultimate goal in Venezuela is regime change, why isn’t it openly declaring that?” he said.
“To date, according to the official count, there are over 100 crew members dead, about 25 boats blown up, we’ve probably spent tens of billions of dollars on this operation, and I really don’t know what the Trump administration can contribute to this.”
The diplomat also said Trump’s shows of force so far, with attacks on ships in the Caribbean and mobilization of US military equipment, would not be enough to remove Nicolas Maduro from power.
“A show of force from the United States, which is undeniably the most militarily powerful country in the Western Hemisphere, is not enough to remove Nicolás Maduro.”
Credit, Reuters
Asked about the possibility of current tensions between Venezuela and the United States escalating into direct conflict, the former US ambassador also said that the US government holds all the cards.
“The Maduro government does not have the capacity to escalate into direct conflict with the United States. Literally, as President Trump likes to say about the Ukrainian president, his administration has all the cards in its bag,” he said.
“And if he (Trump) decides to move forward (with an escalation), he can only do one of three things at this point: he can attack with ground troops, attack with aerial bombs or just go home.”
The diplomat also said he believed there would be no ground invasion by US troops.
“I applaud the awarding of the Nobel Prize to her, but I regret that she dedicated it to Donald Trump,” he said.
The diplomat also compared María Corina’s actions to those of Ahmed Chalabi, an Iraqi politician who encouraged the US invasion of his country in 2003.
Chalabi became known for submitting false documents to the United States about then-Prime Minister Saddam Hussein’s secret possession of weapons of mass destruction. This information allegedly served as the basis for former US President George W. Bush to invade Iraq and overthrow Saddam.
“As much as I admire her and the cause, I have to say that she is doing exactly what Ahmed Chalabi did in Iraq in the fall of 2001, after the al-Qaeda attacks,” Feeley says of María Corina.
“She is using the pretext of weapons of mass destruction, in this case fentanyl, to encourage President Trump to invade her country to free her people, as he has been unable to do until now.”
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