What can happen with the key change in the replacement bands?

The government is introducing a new floating system that adjusts values ​​according to inflation. Details on market impact and forecasts

01/01/2026 – 10:27 am

The Argentine economic scenario begins in 2026 with a structural change in the rules of the game for the foreign exchange market. After a year marked by the transition and ordering of monetary variables, the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA) is introducing a mechanism aimed at ending the traditional fixed adjustment in the year Dollar change straps. This measure expected by the financial sector seeks to adjust the price of the US currency to the reality of inflation, thereby avoiding an exchange rate lag that makes external competitiveness difficult.

The official decision comes at a time of high seasonal sensitivity, when demand for dollars for tourism and the closure of international obligations usually put pressure on reserves. Unlike the previous system, where the market had a static roadmap, the new floating band system introduces a more dynamic component that forces businesses and savers to closely follow the Consumer Price Index (CPI).. The government’s goal is clear: to make the system more flexible without resorting to sudden devaluation while maintaining the predictability required by the market.

This is how the new dollar change strap adjustment works

Starting this month The upper and lower bounds of the float band will no longer increase at a predetermined rate, set at 1% per month to move in line with inflation data reported by INDEC.. According to the monetary authority, the index of the last two months is used as a reference (T-2 scheme). This means that In January 2026, the bands will be revised based on the cost of living recorded in November last year, which according to the latest surveys was around 2.5%.

This change implies that if inflation is trending downward, the movement of the dollar will be slower, but if prices are rising, the exchange rate cap will increase proportionately. In the early rounds of this year, the cap is close to $1,564, but private forecasts suggest that this cap could expand significantly toward the end of the year. For the market, this sliding cap is a tool to defend gross reserves as it allows the ticket price to follow the nominal value of the domestic economy.

The bands are currently on one floor 916 pesos and a cap of 1,526 pesos. Market analysts estimate that with the new system, the cap could be around 1,564 pesos towards the end of January.

Forecasts and scenarios for the dollar towards the end of 2026

City analysts have already begun outlining the possible paths the currency could take under these new regulations. The market consensus, reflected in reports from leading consulting firms and banking firms, suggests a baseline scenario whereby a forecast inflation of around 24% per yearThe official dollar ceiling could reach $1,915 by December 2026. However, there are more pessimistic views that estimate the value of the greenback to be close to $2,000 before the end of the year amid slower-than-expected disinflation.

On the other hand, the BCRA linked this new program to an ambitious reserve building program that aims to bring $10 billion into its coffers this cycle. The strategy is to intervene surgically when the price reaches the extremes of the bands by buying currencies at the bottom or selling at the ceiling. In this first week of January, attention will focus on the central bank’s ability to absorb the peso surplus and how the exchange rate gap will respond to this new paradigm, which ultimately aims to finally stabilize the monetary front.