- The challenge of economic activity: “Bifurcated”
The economist and former member of President Javier Milei’s Council of Advisors, Fausto Spotornoquestioned them The government’s goal, a inflation by August 2026 less than 1% and explained that breaking this barrier will be “the hardest part” in the coming months.
Although the price increase remains at about 2% monthly, Milei promised this days ago by the middle of this year the CPI “will converge to zero”: “By the middle of next year or August, inflation will be around zero point, it will certainly start from zero.”
Under this premise Spotorno seen “difficult“That the target projected by the President will be achieved. “We will see inflation that will return to the downward path,” he explained in a dialogue Radio The Observer. However, he emphasized this Reduce the value from 2% to 1% More effort will be required each month than in previous phases.
“A drop from 5 to 4% per month, as was the case in 2024, meant a 20% reduction in the inflation rate. But.” A reduction from 2 to 1 means halving inflation. And that costs a lot“, he explained. Among the factors that are still weighing on the index, the economist still named such Adjustments to electricity tariffs will be ordered.
“All of this will mean that it will take a little longer for inflation to fall below 1%,” he assured. However, he pointed out that Once this bottom is broken, the disinflation process will accelerate.
Spotorno pointed out that in this case the behavior of companies and consumers will change In the future, contracts for service prices will no longer be renegotiated monthly, but annually.
The challenge of economic activity: “Bifurcated”
Regarding economic activity, Spotorno proposed a scenario of “Economy split in two“On the one hand, he mentioned the blockade related to exports – such as oil, gas, mining and agriculture –. According to the analyst, this sector – a real producer of foreign exchange – is in crisis Moment of great dynamism.
At this point the economist suggested an alternative view industry. In his opinion, this sector should not be analyzed as monolithic, but rather it should be understood to which sector it is linked. Using this logic, he made it clear that the “agricultural economy” moves along rural areas The industry is linked to domestic consumption Due to the purchasing power of the domestic market, progress is much slower.
However, the greatest contrast lies in the area of constructionwhat the analyst calls “most behind“He explained that this sector is bearing the costs of a distortion that occurred between 2022 and 2023, when, in the face of exchange rate uncertainty, construction became the refuge for Argentines to “dollarize” their savings.
Currently, although the Real estate sector He pointed out that because of the accumulated oversupply, it will take a while before new construction activity gets going again.
As for them Arrival of outside capitalThe economist used the metaphor of the “gaucho” to describe investors’ attitude: “First they test the flow with one foot.” In his opinion, foreigners prefer Financing debt of local companies already operating successfully in Vaca Muerta, rather than making massive direct investments. Although he clarified that investment announcements have increased exponentially, he said their physical implementation will be a gradual process.
In this context, Spotorno concluded that the 2026 has a solid foundation for a year of growth. thanks to the reduction in interest rates in developed countries and the improvement in commodity prices.
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