Widespread dissatisfaction with the U.S. economy will lead Trump to focus on law and order, analysts predict.

• Index 2.7%: After Trump vows to lower TV prices, data shows lower-than-expected inflation in November in the United States
• Outlook 2026: Brazilian diplomacy will seek balance with Trump’s United States, against a backdrop of tensions in the region

The Trump administration goes through December knowing it has lost the economic asset crucial to its victory over Democrats last year. It continues at a slow pace, with rising costs of living, unemployment and, consequently, voter discontent. While the Republican’s early popularity records are below 40% in benchmark opinion polls, the main strategy to regain ground until the elections and avoid further internal fissures is to demonstrate strength, on three main axes.

Washington will place greater emphasis on the militarization of policing, primarily in Democratic Party-led cities and governments, which will be held up as examples of public safety ineffectiveness. Raids by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents will increase, with more expulsions of people without the necessary documents to stay in the country. Trump has already announced that he is considering new attacks by the armed forces against targets described as drug traffickers, as already seen in the ships attacked in the Caribbean and the Pacific, with a possible extension of the attacks to Mexico and Colombia. The escalation of tensions with Venezuela, with the aim of overthrowing the dictatorship of Nicolas Maduro, also worries Brasilia.

In June, the United States will host, along with Canada and Mexico, the World Cup. Then, on July 4, the 250th anniversary of independence will be celebrated, with the victory of the American Revolution. The global event and the capitalized anniversary will be used to anabolic national chauvinist and union discourses. But Republican strategists privately acknowledge that it is a defensive measure, aware that 2026 in the United States will be defined by Americans’ perception of the country’s economic health.

When they decided a little over a year ago that a second season of Trump in the White House would be a good idea, voters had in mind the high inflation of the Democratic Party’s Joe Biden administration, peaking at 9.1%. An enormity compared to the Republican’s first term, especially before the pandemic. The dollar, they bet, would buy more and better items with the return of the 79-year-old tycoon’s portrait to the Oval Office. Disappointment with the consequences of customs tariffs, which must follow the Trumpist strategy, and the absence of a policy aimed at fattening the pockets of citizens, are already detected in the research.

— With the cost of living rising and Trump’s popularity declining, we envision a scenario in which Democrats regain control of the House in November, albeit, due to the redrawing of several congressional districts, in a smaller blue wave (a reference to party color) than that seen in the middle of the Republican’s first term, who now wins 15 to 20 seats. But if the president’s popularity drops even further, for example from the current average of 42% to 38%, his chances of losing the Senate will also increase — Cristopher Garman, executive director for the Americas at Eurasia Group, the world’s largest risk consultancy, told GLOBO.

• “The best is yet to come”: Trump suggests economic tone for his speech on US television

In his inaugural address in January, Trump envisioned a golden age for the United States. But voters saw no shine in their daily lives. The latest edition of the traditional biannual survey of the Marist Institute, carried out for public radio (NPR) and television (PBS), published last Wednesday, established a negative record for the Republican. Only 34% of those surveyed said they approved of the way he runs the economy. For the first time in decades, Americans trust the Democratic Party more than the Republican Party on this issue, 37% to 33%. The difference seems insignificant, but, in the same poll, the right had an advantage of 16 percentage points in 2022.

Examining the layers of the electorate, Marista records disapproval of the direction of the economy by 49% of residents of rural areas, particularly affected by tariffs, 48% of women without a university education and an impressive 60% of those living in the suburbs. While the first two groups are the protagonists of the Trumpist coalition, the third concentrates voters without partisan loyalty, the most sought after for the November elections.

• Video: US seizes new oil tanker near Venezuela’s coast, days after Trump declared naval blockade against country

The pessimism is such that, for 52% of those questioned, the country is already in recession. Among Latinos, who experience the reality of constant and frightening ICE raids, the number is even higher, at 68 percent. Fractures in Trumpism were also identified in the survey, with half of those who vote Republican saying paying bills at the end of the month has become more complicated under Trump 2.0. And this translates into less incentive to leave home to vote.

In the overall assessment, Trump has reached a new all-time low: only 38% of respondents view his government positively. Among independents, 30%. The day before, another major survey, the biweekly NBC News, had obtained 42% support in the White House, with a continued increase in discontent since June.

• Epstein case: The release of the first part of the documents highlights Clinton and makes little mention of Trump; to understand

Marista and NBC’s year-end portraits are loud for Democrats, winners of this year’s key races. They took over the government of Virginia, extended their advantage in New Jersey in pockets of population of Latin American origin, where Trump had made progress, elected a socialist immigrant as mayor of New York, regained, after three decades, command in Miami and confirmed at the polls the radical project of redrawing electoral districts defended by the governor of California, Gavin Newsom, perceived as the most likely future leader of a still headless opposition.

Also Wednesday, the president gave an official assessment of the economy. He claimed, among other untruths, to have returned to power with the highest inflation since the Gerald Ford government in the 1970s, when in reality it was 3% and to have ended the year at the same level. He said a gallon of gasoline has fallen to US$1.99, but the national average, according to his government’s data, is US$2.90. And there was not much to celebrate except the end of the imposition of tips, overtime and social security contributions, in addition to the announcement of bonuses of 1,776 dollars (around R$9,800) for the military. The value refers to the birth certificate of the country.

Although he did not repeat the mistake of characterizing Americans’ dismay as a reaction to the “Democrats’ cheating narrative,” the president seemed, once again, to doubt citizens’ perception of reality. At The Atlantic, journalist Tom Nichols saw the responsibility, delivered in a “grumpy tone”, as a “display of panic”, with signs that the advancement of the Trumpism agenda should be halted in 2026.

• High voltage: ‘I don’t rule out that possibility,’ Trump says of possible war with Venezuela after US planes fly over region

As long as they do not realize the challenge of job creation through reindustrialization financed by customs tariffs, underlines Cristopher Garman, the Republicans will find themselves with the strategy of public order, which will even have an impact on the confrontation with Maduro.