In line with what the third quarter result of the year showed, which was heavily influenced by the financial tensions in the run-up to the general elections, Economic activity fell 0.3% in October. This fluctuation confirms a stagnation in the economy, which experienced an upswing at the beginning of the year but then slowed down.
The data was published by the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (Indec) in its usual Monthly Estimator of Economic Activity (EMAE). This report also revealed that the economy recorded a year-on-year growth of 3.2% in October compared to the same month in 2024.
In addition, Indec reported that regarding the same month of 2024 12 of the activity areas that make up the EMAE recorded increasesamong which fishing (91.4% year-on-year) and financial intermediation (22.8% year-on-year) stand out. In the latter case, the expansion is mainly due to increased activity by agents and brokerage firms.
Financial intermediation activity, in turn, was the one with the largest positive impact on interannual fluctuationsfollowed by real estate, business and rental activities (3.9% YoY); Both sectors contributed 1.32 percentage points (pp) to the EMAE’s annual growth.
In the sum of the first 10 months of 2025, the economy is 5% above the same period in 2024.
Economist Camilo Tiscornia, director of C&T Economic Advisors, attributed the negative result of the monthly measurement to the financial tensions that arose in October in the run-up to the elections. “Aside from that, The financial sector also had a negative impact on other sectors of the economy.“, he added.
Even taking into account this decrease compared to the previous month, Tiscornia It was forecast that the year could end with growth between 4% and 4.5%. “It is expected that there will be a recovery in November and December,” estimated the economist.
For her part, economist Florencia Iragui from the consulting firm LCG commented This seasonally adjusted monthly decline of 0.4% comes after revisions to previous data that resulted in three months of consecutive increases.
Likewise, Iragui added: “Annual activity reached a fluctuation of 3.2% in October 2025, although excluding the contribution of agriculture, mining and financial intermediation, the sectors with the largest contributions to the positive fluctuation of the index.” Annual growth would have fallen to 0.8% in October and 2.8% for the full 10 months of 2025″.
According to LCG estimates, the year would end with growth of around 4.5%. “If the indicator remained at the current level, the year would end with an average growth of 4.4%.. We have to remember that this growth is very uneven between sectors,” said the economist.
Lorenzo Sigaut Gravina, economist at consultancy Equilibra, pointed out that the October result showed a leveling off. “After the growth in the first months of the year, as the cycle development shows, a stagnation scenario is configured; with some months on the rise and another on the decline“, he analyzed.
For Sigaut Gravina, the government expects the numbers to improve in November and December, with lower interest rates, an easing of the exchange rate and less pressure on the dollar. “He’s hoping that the activity level there will increase very slowly. But.” There has been a very unstable behavior and although the year will end with a growth of more than 4%, observing the trend on a monthly basis shows that it ends at the same level at which it began.“, he concluded.
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