- An epidemic that is advancing, but still contained
- Primary care under growing pressure
- Hospital admissions are increasing, but not skyrocketing
- Fewer hospitalizations than a year ago
- Pneumonia: below recent peaks
- Transmission accelerates and accentuates emergency situations
- Reports on the collapse of the health care system
On Christmas Eve, the flu is once again making headlines, family conversations and health warnings.with a feeling of worry amplified by the holiday calendar and the fear of a collapse of the health system in the weeks of greatest mobility. However, Data from the Carlos III Health Institute’s acute respiratory infection surveillance system offer a more nuanced reading.
Although primary care visits have skyrocketed and community transmission is clearly increasing, hospitalizations and pneumonia remain lower than those recorded last winterwithout going any further.
An epidemic that is advancing, but still contained
The intensity of the epidemic of acute respiratory infections in the 2025-2026 season is, for the moment, at levels considered normal or low for this time of yearaccording to the comparison with the historical series.
The rate changes 800 cases per 100,000 inhabitantsa high level, but still far from the envisaged thresholds high or very high intensity. The curve shows a gradual rise since the second half of November, with a clear acceleration from the end of the month, coinciding with the beginning of the cold and increased social interaction.
Anyway, the data is still far from the peaks reached in recent winterswhich contradicts the idea of an exceptionally serious season.
Primary care under growing pressure
Where the impact is evident is in Primary caretransformed into the first containment barrier for increasing infections. Incidence rates by age group reveal a sharp increase in consultationsespecially between under 14swhich concentrate the highest figures of the entire recent series.
In the included section between mid-November and mid-Decemberincidence in the pediatric population multiplies several times that recorded in young adultsa phenomenon that repeats itself every winter but which this year gained media importance due to the speed of the increase.
They also emphasize over 80swith a sustained increase which anticipates possible greater hospital pressure if the trend continues.
On the other hand, the intermediate age groups – 15 to 64 years and 65 to 79 years – present more moderate growthwith no steep peaks yet.
Hospital admissions are increasing, but not skyrocketing
The increase in cases is beginning to be reflected in hospital admissions for acute respiratory infectionalthough with a different behavior than last winter.
The prices by age group confirm that People over 80 years old concentrate the greatest hospital burdenfollowed by the age group 65 to 79, while children’s income remains relatively low.
Anyway, The current figures remain lower than those recorded over the same period of the 2024-2025 seasoneven in the most vulnerable groups.
Fewer hospitalizations than a year ago
The direct comparison between seasons reinforces this idea. By superimposing the weekly hospitalization curves per 100,000 inhabitants, the 2025-2026 season appears systematically below the previous one.
Last winter saw an earlier and more intense reboundwhile the current one advances in a more gradual manner. This difference is essential for interpreting hospital pressure: there are more patients in the system, but less proportional revenue.
Pneumonia: below recent peaks
Another of the most sensitive indicators is that of pneumoniaone of the most serious complications associated with the flu.
Here too, the data calls for caution: Current rates are lower than those recorded in winter 2024while some of the highest values in the recent series were reached.
Comparison with previous seasons shows that the most pronounced peaks occurred in 2022-2023 and 2023-2024while The 2025-2026 curve evolves in an intermediate bandwith a recent but still contained increase.
Transmission accelerates and accentuates emergency situations
None of this denies that the flu is growing. According to the latest report from the Carlos III Health Institute, the rate of influenza-like illness is 195.9 cases per 100,000 inhabitantscompared to 166 the previous week.
This increase This is already felt in the emergency servicesparticularly in certain autonomous communities.
The Spanish Society of Emergency Medicine (SEMES) warns of a clearly upward trendwith “very high incidences of acute respiratory infections and a growing impact on emergency and inpatient services, particularly in the pediatric population, babies under one year of age and people over 75 to 80 years of age.
In certain territories, he emphasizes, Hospital admissions increased by more than 50% in a single week.
Its vice-president, Javier Millán, emphasizes that the increase in hospitalizations is concentrated among vulnerable people: “More and more patients require hospitalization due to complications, particularly those over 65 years old with comorbidities.“.
Reports on the collapse of the health care system
The CSIF union went further and denounced a situation of collapse in emergency and primary care. “The worst of the flu epidemic has not arrived and the national health system already shows a bleak outlook“, declared its Health spokesperson, Darío Carrasquilla.
Complaint Full schedules, delays of up to 15 days in primary care and hospitals with patients waiting for a bed for several days.
The union cites specific examples: 784 patients treated in a single day at Toledo University Hospitalwait until four days for a bed at Miguel Servet in Zaragoza or the overflowing emergency rooms in Madrid’s hospitals, with patients in corridors and makeshift areas.
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