Inflation forecasts increased by 0.25% in December. During the year, the index showed an increase of 4.41%. The result indicates that the index will end the year below the target ceiling set by the National Monetary Council (CMN). The target is 3%, with a margin of tolerance of around 1.5 percentage points. Thus, the President of the Central Bank, Gabriel Galípolo, will not need to write a letter to justify non-compliance with the inflation target.
The data is part of the National Consumer Price Index 15 (IPCA), from the IBGE, and was published this Tuesday.
The result was as expected. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast an increase of around 0.25% for the month, according to the median of projections. For the year, the estimate was about 4.41%.
Of the nine product and service groups surveyed, seven increased in December. The Transport group is the one which recorded the strongest change: 0.69%.
Plane tickets and transport via applications on the rise
The increase in December is mainly due to the prices of plane tickets (up 12.71% compared to the previous month) and transport via application, with an increase of 9% over the month. Fuels increased by an average of 0.26%, with increases of 1.70% for ethanol and 0.11% for gasoline. Motor gasoline and diesel, on the other hand, fell by 0.26% and 0.38%, respectively.
Clothing-related items also put pressure on the index during the month, with increases in children’s (1.05%), women’s (0.98%) and men’s (0.70%) clothing.
The food and drinks group, which according to economists has one of the greatest weights on the family budget, grew by 0.13% in December. Home food, which includes items purchased at markets, recorded a decline for the seventh consecutive month, according to the IBGE. Food away from home increased by 0.65% in December, with an increase in snacks (0.99%) and meals (0.62%).
In the annual analysis, the group that contributed the most to the progression of inflation is housing, with an increase of 6.69% in 2025. Residential electricity, which accumulates 11.95%, alone represents 0.47 percentage points of the index over the year. The second biggest impact came from the Food and Beverages group, which increased by 3.57%.
But it was eating away from home that weighed the most. Snacks became more expensive by 11.34%, while meals increased by 6.25%. But some items purchased at the market put pressure on family budgets. Coffee accumulated an increase of 41.84% over the year.
On the downside, rice recorded a decline of 26%, while long-life milk and potatoes fell by 10.42% and 27.7%, respectively.
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