As the end of the year approaches and we look ahead to 2026, the behavior of the dollar is once again the focus of concern for small and medium-sized savers. In a scenario of falling inflation, fiscal adjustments and openness to capital inflows, the big question is whether the currency will continue to be the main haven for value.
In this context, economist and consultant Salvador Di Stéfano – popularly known as the “Guru of the City” – analyzed the direction of the Argentine economy for the next two years, predicting a scenario significantly different from the one that dominated the last decade. He did this in an interview with El Observador 107.9, where he outlined a roadmap that includes the dollar, economic growth and key recommendations for SMEs.
What will the dollar cap be in 2026, according to city guru?
Di Stéfano gave his definition of the exchange rate. When asked about the value of the dollar at the end of 2026, Di Stéfano responded forcefully: “The dollar will be at $1,600, just 10% above current value.”
The analyst even thought his forecast might be conservative. “I think I may be wrong because the value could be lower. “I am optimistic that a lot of money will flow to Argentina,” he said.
In this sense, he sent a direct message to those who hold dollars outside the financial system: “People have to decide what to do with the dollars they save, because if not, they will lose purchasing power every day.”
The end of the “curse” of even years
Di Stéfano also pointed out one of the historical patterns of the Argentine economy: the alternation between expansion in election years and adjustment in even years. According to his vision, this scheme will be abandoned. “We are undergoing a brutal change in the economy that very few have recognized,” held.
For the economist, less government intervention completely changes the growth dynamics. “In the even year, i.e. 2026, the economy will grow more than in the odd year. It is the first time that we will come out of the cage,” he explained.
This “cage,” he explained, represents the period between 2011 and 2023 during which GDP fluctuated without achieving sustainable growth. “This time we are about to cross the border of the cage and we will experience two consecutive years of growth and not recovery,” he noted.
A central part of his analysis was dedicated to small and medium-sized companies, which face a scenario without high inflation that would reduce costs. Accordingly Di StefanoThe new context requires profound changes in management.
“What people have to try If we talk about an SME, it is trying to reduce costs and expenses. As? “Be more efficient and productive and invest in capital goods to produce more volumes,” he explained.
In a more competitive market, producing more products is no longer an option but a necessity to reduce unit costs and maintain margins. That’s when he introduced a definition that was uncomfortable for many business people: “If they’re still alive and prices haven’t risen remotely as much as inflation, that means they had a cushion of profitability that they either didn’t know they had or were working on it behind closed doors.”
An unequal economy: the example of Arcor
To illustrate the heterogeneity of the economic process, the City Guru quoted Arcor’s latest balance sheet. As he explained, while segments such as candy, chocolate and cookies saw sales and profitability improvements, other items – such as canned goods – saw negative results.
“Reality is not homogeneous, it is heterogeneous,” he emphasized. The difference, he explained, was in management: “They managed their brand portfolio: they reduced packaging, made mini candies and invested in logistics. Anyone can do that, even in a radio station looking for transversal strategies to reach the consumer.”
Finally, Di Stéfano outlined a schedule for next year. He expects a slow start: “A Sana-Sana that lasts January, February and March.”
However, he marked April as a turning point: “In April, the economy starts to accelerate because the bumper crop starts bringing in dollars, RIGI investments start and the economy has always had a positive slope since that month.”
According to his forecast, the second half of 2026 will be “very beneficial” for sectors such as trade, tourism and services, provided companies have the capital and structure to support the growth.
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